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Some of the first statewide primaries in the nation are happening Tuesday in North Carolina and Texas. The outcome of these primaries could help determine control of Congress in the fall and tell us more about the direction voters want to take during the latter half of President Trump’s second term.
Journalists from across the NPR Network are covering the races in their communities. Here’s what we are watching.
How will GOP voters interpret loyalty to Trump?
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Texas’ GOP Senate primary is centered around the question of which Republican candidate is most aligned with President Trump. Sen. John Cornyn was elected in 2002, which his opponents say makes him a conservative from a different time. Although Cornyn often points out that he consistently votes with Trump.
Ken Paxton, Texas’ attorney general for the past decade, is Cornyn’s most formidable opponent. And he has been mired in legal troubles for years, but he has said that like Trump, most of that has been politically motivated.
Congressman Wesley Hunt, who represents some Houston suburbs, has been polling third in the race but garnering enough support that this race could very likely head to a runoff.
In North Carolina, former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley is running for the GOP’s U.S. Senate nomination with Trump’s endorsement. But before he faces former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper in the general election, he must survive a primary where his opponents say their far-right views are more closely aligned with the president’s agenda.
— Ashley Lopez, Colin Campbell, WUNC
Could Democrats flip Senate seats in Texas and North Carolina long held by Republicans?
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The last time Democrats won a statewide election in Texas was more than 30 years ago. Yet Democrats think they have a chance to flip a seat as voters express concerns over the cost of living and immigration enforcement. A recent NPR/PBS News/Marist poll found that more people than ever are describing the direction Trump is moving the country in as “change for the worse.”
Even so, whoever the Democratic nominee is will have an uphill fight in the fall.
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Dallas-area Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett is facing off against State Rep. James Talarico of Austin. Both have high name recognition across the state. Crockett because she’s been a very vocal critic of Trump in the House, Talarico, more recently because of an unaired interview for “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert” that went viral on YouTube.
North Carolina Democrats haven’t won a U.S. Senate election since 2008, but they’re hoping popular former Gov. Roy Cooper can succeed in a race that’s essential for their party’s hopes of retaking the Senate.
Cooper’s decision to run cleared the Democratic primary field of other prominent candidates. President Trump is backing former RNC Chairman Michael Whatley. That’s meant both Whatley and Cooper are already looking beyond the primary and attacking each other.
— Colin Campbell, WUNC, Andrew Schneider, Houston Public Media
Are primary voters angry with their party’s establishment leaders?
We’ve seen upsets in other races in the past year, most recently in a special election primary in a New Jersey Congressional district where Analilia Mejia, former political director for Sen. Bernie Sanders’s presidential campaign, beat out more established candidates in her Democratic primary.
Mejia told NPR’s Michel Martin she thinks many Democratic voters are dissatisfied with the response they see from incumbent politicians to President Trump’s second term, calling it an “anemic response.”
Voters may continue to channel that dissatisfaction in other primaries this year.
In North Carolina, a loss for Democratic Congresswoman Valerie Foushee could signal discontent with the party’s approach to battling the Trump administration. And on the Republican side, longtime state Senate leader Phil Berger faces a challenge from Rockingham County Sheriff, Sam Page, who argues Berger has become too cozy with lobbying interests in the state capital. An unusually high number of Republican state lawmakers in North Carolina are facing primary opponents this year.
Republicans will also learn whether incumbents like Sen. John Cornyn in Texas are able to hold on to their seats. Under Texas law, if none of the candidates gets more than 50% of the vote, the election goes to a run off. So it’s entirely possible the GOP primary won’t be resolved until late May.
— Colin Campbell, WUNC, Andrew Schneider, Houston Public Media
Will GOP gains among Latino voters in Texas hold?
The economy and immigration were top issues that drove many Texas Latinos to support Trump in 2024. But lingering high prices and cost-of-living issues could become a liability for Republicans in power.
Texas’ primary elections could be a first look at whether Latino swing voters, who are increasingly influential in state elections, are sticking with the Republican Party.
Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston, says that “the Latino electorate has emerged as the biggest swing vote in Texas because they are willing to side with either party.” But he says that the Trump administration’s tough enforcement policies when it comes to immigration may become a factor in Latinos switching their votes this year.
“We are seeing increased Democratic turnout in places and in counties where you’ve got a significant chunk of the Latino electorate,” he said. “That is a signal for Democrats that they’re able to compete again.”
Yet Daniel Garza, who works as president of the LIBRE Initiative to mobilize Latino voters to support conservative candidates, believes the economy will continue to be the deciding factor in whom these voters support.
“The biggest danger for Democrats, with respect to the Latino vote, is that Latinos are getting comfortable voting for Republicans,” Garza said. “I think that it’s put Democrats on their heels in a very real way.”
— Ashley Lopez
How will redistricting play a role in the results?
Fewer congressional contests are expected to be competitive this fall, compared with past election cycles. And many experts say that’s because of recent redistricting efforts initiated by Trump.
Last year, Trump asked Texas lawmakers to redraw the state’s congressional map to create five more seats that could favor Republicans in 2026.
North Carolina GOP controlled legislature also followed suit. The state’s 1st Congressional District became more conservative in an effort to pick up an additional seat in a state where Republicans already hold 10 of its 14 U.S. House seats.
The new district lines have drawn a crowded GOP primary field, as five candidates compete for a chance to run against Democratic Congressman Don Davis. Davis faces tough odds under the new district lines.
Some Democratic-led states, like California, have tried to offset any gains by creating new maps that favor their party.
— Ashley Lopez, Colin Campbell, WUNC
State-by-state breakdown
Learn more about how to vote in the North Carolina and Texas primaries on March 3:
North Carolina
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Voter Guide: WFDD’s Amy Diaz reports, “There are more than 2,600 voting locations across the state. Residents can use the North Carolina Board of Elections Voter Search tool online to find their specific site.”
Texas
Voter Guide: KUT’s Blaise Gainey reports, “On Tuesday, voters can cast ballots only at their designated polling place. Check your county’s local elections website or votetexas.gov to find your correct voting center. Before heading to the polls, you can make sure you’re registered by visiting the Texas Secretary of State’s website.”
NPR’s Stephen Fowler contributed to this report
