Can they actually do it? Arsenal enter the final stretch of the 2025/26 Premier League season in the driver’s seat, boasting 70 points from 31 games. But with Manchester City (61 pts, 30 games played) lurking and a trip to the Etihad on the horizon, the finish line may still feel a mile away for Mikel Arteta.
Following Arsenal’s EFL Cup Final heartbreak, the question is whether the wheels are about to come off or if this squad has finally developed a finishing touch.
The “Magic Number” for Glory
Over the last five years, the average points tally for the Premier League winner has been 89 points.
| Season | Champions | Points | Runners-up |
| 2024/25 | Liverpool | 84 | Arsenal (74) |
| 2023/24 | Man City | 91 | Arsenal (89) |
| 2022/23 | Man City | 89 | Arsenal (84) |
| 2021/22 | Man City | 93 | Liverpool (92) |
| 2020/21 | Man City | 86 | Man Utd (74) |
The 2026 Forecast: Arsenal need 16 points from their remaining seven games to hit 86 – a total that would have won the league last year. City are capable of reaching 85.
1. Arsenal vs. Bournemouth | Emirates Stadium | Saturday, April 11
The Context: The first Premier League game after the international break. Arsenal must start fast to erase the memory of their Wembley loss.
- First Meeting: Arsenal won a dramatic 3-2 thriller at the Vitality in January with Declan Rice scoring twice.
- The Danger: Bournemouth are safe in mid-table and playing with zero pressure.
- Home Record: Arsenal have won 12 of 15 home games this term, averaging 2.4 goals per match at the Emirates.
2. Manchester City vs. Arsenal | Etihad Stadium | Sunday, April 19
The Context: The “Title Decider.” If City win their game in hand and beat Arsenal here, the gap effectively vanishes.
- First Meeting: A tense 1-1 draw at the Emirates in September.
- The “Haaland” Factor: Erling Haaland has scored in three of his last four games against Arsenal.
- Tactical Battle: City’s Nico O’Reilly destroyed Arsenal’s midfield in the League Cup Final. Arteta must decide whether to stick with his attacking 4-3-3 or revert to a double-pivot for safety.
3. Arsenal vs. Newcastle United | Emirates Stadium | Saturday, April 25
The Context: Newcastle are fighting to save their season after a Champions League thrashing and historically love upsetting the Gunners’ rhythm.
- First Meeting: Arsenal won 2-1 at St. James’ Park in September.
- Key Stat: If Arsenal drop points at the Etihad, this becomes a “must-win” under immense stress.
4. West Ham vs. Arsenal | London Stadium | Saturday, May 9
The Context: A London derby against a team fighting for survival. As we noted in our relegation breakdown, West Ham are desperate.
- The Rivalry: Arsenal won 2-0 in the reverse fixture, but the Hammers should be resolute and difficult to break down at home during a relegation scrap.
- The “Eze” Watch: Eberechi Eze missed out on England duty this week with a calf strain – Arsenal’s creativity drops significantly without him in the lineup.
5. Crystal Palace vs. Arsenal | Selhurst Park | Sunday, May 24
The Context: Final day. If the race goes to the wire, Selhurst Park is the last place on earth Arsenal want to go.
- First Meeting: Arsenal won 1-0 in a cagey game in October.
- The Scenario: If Arsenal lead by two points or less, the pressure of a final-day away trip will test their maturity to the limit.
Arsenal have a “gentler” run-in compared to Manchester City, who still have to face Chelsea and Liverpool in April. However, the psychological weight of the Etihad clash is massive. We predict Arsenal will draw at City but win their remaining six games to finish on 89 points – finally ending the 22-year drought.
FAQ: Arsenal Title Race 2026
Q: When did Arsenal last win the Premier League? A: Arsenal last won the title in the 2003/04 “Invincibles” season.
Q: Who is Arsenal’s top scorer in 2025/26? A: Viktor Gyökeres has 11 league goals this season.
Q: Does goal difference matter? A: Yes. Arsenal currently have a +39 GD compared to City’s +32. This acts as an “extra point” in a tight race.
