Later this evening, the 2026 World Baseball Classic will come to a conclusion. It has been just as exciting as anticipated, with dominant performances from some of the elite teams combined with surprising upsets (such as Team Italy’s 4-0 record in the pool stage and Samurai Japan’s defeat at the hands of Team Venezuela in the quarterfinals). All of that leads into tonight’s game, where Team USA will take the field opposite Team Venezuela. Which country’s national team will emerge victorious?
Many have considered Team USA the favorite in this year’s iteration of the WBC since before the tournament even began. The club has boasted the tournament’s most star-studded roster, with Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal at the front of the rotation, Mason Miller in the back of the bullpen, and a lineup full of the game’s best hitters like Aaron Judge, Cal Raleigh, and Bobby Witt Jr. (among many others).
Team Venezuela’s lineup is impressive in its own right, with a combined 25 All-Star appearances between their starting lineup (14 of which belong to Ronald Acuña Jr. and Salvador Perez). Their pitching is a bit less impressive on paper, however. Ranger Suárez and Eduardo Rodriguez are solid arms who have earned big multi-year deals in the majors, but they aren’t the sort of perennial Cy Young favorites that Skubal and Skenes are. A bullpen featuring Daniel Palencia, Angel Zerpa, and José Buttó is certainly solid, but none of those arms can hold a candle to the elite production offered by Miller.
That disparity in pitching is likely a big part of why 52% of MLBTR readers predicted that Team USA would win this year’s WBC in a poll conducted at the outset of the tournament, while just 2% predicted Team Venezuela would be able to pull off a win. Since then, Venezuela has shown its might by taking down not only Samurai Japan, but also the only national team that’s managed to beat Team USA so far in the tournament: Italy.
Venezuela’s back-end relief arms have been lights-out, and players like Luis Arraez and Maikel Garcia have managed to come through in a big way throughout the tournament. Of course, Team USA has delivered the offensive firepower as well. That Judge and his .979 OPS in the tournament actually sits below that of four other hitters in the lineup (Gunnar Henderson, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Roman Anthony, and Kyle Schwarber) says it all in terms of the United States’ offensive prowess.
If the USA’s national team is clicking offensively, and there’s a big discrepancy between the two pitching staffs, it might seem as though Venezuela remains an underdog headed into tonight’s final game. That might not be as cut-and-dry as it seems, however. That’s because Team USA’s pitching is not close to firing on all cylinders right now. Plenty of the team’s pitchers (including both Skubal and Skenes) have returned to MLB camp and aren’t available for the final game of the tournament. That’s led manager Mark DeRosa to tap Nolan McLean for tonight’s start, but McLean was shelled for three runs in three innings of work during his appearance against Italy. He’ll be facing a much more accomplished lineup tonight, and it’s hard to know if the 24-year-old rookie will be able to meet the moment.
If McLean falters, the bullpen supporting him seems unlikely to be as strong either. It’s not entirely clear who DeRosa will have at his disposal for the final game, but there’s whispers that one or both between Miller and top set-up man David Bednar could be unavailable based on their previous pitch counts. Players like Garrett Whitlock, Griffin Jax, and Tyler Rogers are certainly very talented and capable of handling late-inning roles, but that back-end trio looks much closer to Venezuela’s best bullpen arms than someone like Miller would. If Miller and Bednar are out, that figures to erode most of Team USA’s pitching advantage.
How do MLBTR readers think tonight’s final game will shake out? Will Team USA take the title, as many have assumed they would throughout the entire tournament, or will Venezuela manage to overcome the odds and be crowned this year’s WBC champs? Have your say in the poll below:
