One year after the Ford government tabled its first “Protect Ontario” budget, the province is offering a conflicting view of the impact of United States President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
On one hand, the finance minister insists Ontario is bracing for the worst, telling MPPs that “geopolitical forces that may have once felt distant have now reached our shores.”
But with the numbers now in on the first year of Trump, and its impact on the provincial economy, Ontario, it seems, has weathered the turbulence.
The government says Ontario is in the same trade position as it was before Trump entered the White House, despite preparing to be battered by tariffs.
The lack of impact on the economy appears to be reflected in how the supports Ontario set up have — or have not — been used.
Small businesses were offered $9 billion in provincial tax deferrals, but they only used $2 billion of that fund. Larger industries could tap into a $5 billion Protect Ontario Account; they only used $1 billion of the money available.
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The latter fund, it appears, was deemed so unnecessary that the government is now redirecting it, creating an investment fund for new sectors the province wants to chase.
“The economists thought we would grow at 0.8 per cent last year, and were rightfully worried about what the tariffs might be; it could have been a lot worse, they thought,” Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy said in an interview on Focus Ontario.
“It didn’t materialize. Still a lot of challenges like Section 232 steel and auto (tariffs), but our economy actually grew at 1.2 per cent. So, better than expected in 2025.”
Critics claim the “Protect Ontario” messaging from the government was a smokescreen.
“They’re not protecting, they’re pretending,” Liberal MPP John Fraser said on Thursday. “‘I’m going to spend this much money.’ Then they don’t.”
Bethlenfalvy insisted that uncertainty remains.
“We have the CUSMA renegotiation coming up. We have some of the impact on industries like steel still impacted. And we have, of course, now, global conflict driving up the price of oil.”
The budget itself reflects a relatively grim reality, even though the effects of tariffs were lighter than expected.
In its 2026 financial plan, the government is telegraphing that there are fears for the future.
Its budget is worth a total of $244 billion, which includes an increased deficit of $13.8 billion for this year, and $6.1 billion for next year. It is delaying its plans to balance the budget until 2028.
The total deficit is also hurtling toward half a trillion dollars by next year.
Focus Ontario airs at 5:30 p.m. Saturday on Global TV.
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