This week’s mailbag gets into how the Cubs’ recent big contracts will age, Fernando Tatis Jr.‘s future at second base, the left side of the Brewers’ infield, the Yankees’ bullpen, and more.
Alex asks:
How overdramatic of a take is this? Within 2 years, all three of Alex Bregman, Nico Hoerner, and Pete Crow-Armstrong will be upside down on the value of their deals. I’ve thought the Bregman deal would age like milk from the jump. Hoerner is solid but it’s a lot of money to pay a Luis Arraez that can play a good 2b. And PCA’s bat has always been suspect. There will a lot of good defense and PCA will steal some bases, but not a ton else.
I agree with your broader point: the Cubs recently committed to a $431MM to a fairly risky trio.
Back in January, I felt Davy Andrews of FanGraphs did a nice job articulating the downside risk of signing Bregman through the age of 36. The key passage: “He’s not starting out with much margin for error, so things could get ugly when his bat speed or his contact skills start to go. And Bregman is already slow and a below-average baserunner. He already has a weak arm. When the first-step quickness goes, the defense could crater pretty quickly too.”
Baseball player aging does not happen in a nice, linear, predictable fashion. At some point during this contract, Bregman is going to be pretty bad. The Cubs are betting it’ll be the last year or two. It would not be crazy to bet major decline and/or increased missed time due to injury sets in earlier than that.
Bregman had 42.9 Baseball-Reference WAR through the age of 31. That ranks 17th in baseball history for those who played at least 90% of their games at third. Let’s make a list of those near Bregman on that list, excluding Harlond Clift and Bill Bradley for playing too long ago. Here’s their WAR from age 32-36:
Williams and Glaus were linked to PED use, so we might set them aside. If we do that and assume Bregman will not enter a Wright-level injury spiral, these comps suggests there’s actually a decent chance Bregman puts together a 15-WAR Cubs career. That might put him in “Hall of Very Good” Evan Longoria territory. More germane to this question, the Cubs would feel they got their money’s worth.
Longoria is actually another cautionary tale, as a third baseman who had a better career than Bregman by age 32 but managed only 6.8 WAR from 32-36. It’s also worth considering that Bregman had a 125 wRC+ at age 31; Longo was a league average hitter by that point. It was his early Rays career that had Longoria on a Hall of Fame track through age 30.
If Bregman can manage something around 5.5 WAR for 2026-27, then I probably wouldn’t call his contract upside-down at that point. You can read up on some good dollars-per-WAR stuff from Ben Clemens at FanGraphs here, but I’ll ballpark the market at $12MM per WAR (per year) for a regular-caliber player based on that. And that’s putting aside the insane amount of money big market teams occasionally pay per star player WAR, like the Dodgers with Kyle Tucker.
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