The Tigers brought back Jack Flaherty on a two-year, $35 million deal heading into last season after a resurgent 2024 campaign. The veteran righty wasn’t as effective in his second year with the club, but he maintained strong strikeout numbers while matching Tarik Skubal for the team lead in starts. Flaherty’s underlying metrics suggested a bounce-back effort was on the table for 2026, but the results have been concerning so far.
Flaherty was battered for six earned runs over two innings on Saturday against the Reds. He came into the outing having allowed just one home run this year, but Cincinnati took him deep three times. The clunker pushed Flaherty’s ERA to 5.33 across 25 1/3 innings. His xFIP (5.94) and SIERA (5.48) are even higher than that mark. The lone positive from the Kansas City game was Flaherty’s two walks. It was the first time this year he’d issued fewer than three free passes, though getting yanked after two frames probably helped.
The clear concern for Flaherty is the control. He hasn’t been in the zone often enough to be effective. The 30-year-old right-hander has piled up 22 walks through six starts. He moved past A’s righty Luis Severino for the league lead this weekend. Severino’s 21 walks have come in six more innings. Flaherty has posted career-worst numbers in zone rate (43%), strike rate (56%), and swinging-strike rate (9.2%).
The new ABS challenge system has led to walk rates ticking up around the league, but that doesn’t seem to be the reason for Flaherty’s struggles. His 16.9% called strike rate is right in line with his career norm. Detroit leads the league in correct challenge rate at 84%. The club ranks first in Statcast’s Overturns vs. Expected metric, which tabulates net ABS results by a team using a comparison to similar pitches. Opponents have won 42% of challenges against the Tigers, which is the 12th-lowest mark. Maybe an approach change by Flaherty to adjust to the new system has led to the increase in walks, though his pitch mix and locations look relatively normal.
After stumbling through a 2023 campaign split between the Cardinals and Orioles, Flaherty revived his career with the Tigers in 2024. He delivered a sub-3.00 ERA with a career-best 32% strikeout rate over 18 starts. After bringing in Flaherty on a modest one-year, $14 million agreement, the Tigers were able to cash in at the trade deadline, sending him to the Dodgers for a pair of prospects. Neither Thayron Liranzo nor Trey Sweeney has emerged as an impact contributor for Detroit, but it was still a good bit of business at the time. Flaherty grabbed a World Series ring with the Dodgers, then came back to the Tigers in the offseason.
Flaherty had the opportunity to opt out of his Detroit deal after 2025. He chose to remain with the club for $10MM this season, plus another $10MM earned by making 15 starts last year. It was an unsurprising move, as Flaherty was coming off a middling campaign and was unlikely to make much more on the open market.
Detroit made one of the biggest starting pitcher additions over the winter, adding Framber Valdez on a three-year, $115MM pact. The club is paying Skubal a record $32MM via arbitration. Justin Verlander‘s one-year, $13MM contract won’t break the bank, but it’s another investment on the pitching side that contributed to the club’s $217MM payroll (per RosterResource). With Jackson Jobe, Reese Olson, and Troy Melton on the 60-day IL, the Tigers’ pitching depth has thinned out. Verlander has yet to pitch this year as he deals with a hip injury.
The rotation has been a strength outside of Flaherty. Skubal’s contributions remain Cy Young-caliber. Valdez has been a steady presence. Casey Mize actually paces the group with a 2.51 ERA. The former No. 1 overall pick is off to one of the best starts of his career. Keider Montero has filled in admirably for the injured Verlander. Getting Flaherty back on track would give the Tigers one of the more formidable rotations in the American League as the club looks to make it three straight trips to the postseason.
Photo courtesy of Aaron Doster, Imagn Images
