From a soldier with insider information to rigged thermometers: The multimillion-dollar scams on Polymarket

There are no such things as coincidences. What are the odds that a Polymarket user pockets a hefty profit by betting on the exact moment Nicolás Maduro would cease to be president of Venezuela? And what are the odds that others walk away with more than $35,000 for predicting the temperature in Paris on an ordinary day? These are always‑winning wagers inside the booming prediction market, which is built entirely on binary outcomes — A or B. Fast, easy money.

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