This week’s mailbag gets into the Cardinals’ strong start, the Mets’ terrible offense, what a Mets, Red Sox, or Phillies sell-off might look like, Casey Mize‘s contract year, and more.
Andrew asks:
I came into the year with low expectations for the Cardinals, but we still have a decent record. How long would the Cardinals need to maintain a winning record before I get any hopes up about making the playoffs?
FanGraphs is much more optimistic than PECOTA on this team, so we’ll go with their 13.5% playoff odds. The Cardinals have played .552 ball through 17.9% of their season, but FG calls for .462 from here on out. If the Cards instead play .500 ball for their final 129, they’ll win 82-83 games, which might put them firmly in the mix for a wild card spot until the end.
At 4.83 runs scored per game, the Cardinals’ offense ranks sixth in the NL. If they actually get into the neighborhood of 800 runs, it’d be impressive for any team, not just one that entered the season with low expectations.
Nine Cardinals players have 60+ PA and account for 85% of the team’s total:
- Ivan Herrera – 138 wRC+. The Statcast metrics are strong, and even if Herrera can’t maintain a 17% walk rate, his .278 xBA and .471 xSLG suggest this is mostly real. If so, the Cardinals have a lineup cornerstone at DH/catcher through 2029.
- JJ Wetherholt – 132 wRC+. The highly-regarded rookie is getting on base and exceeding expectations. He’ll slump at some point, but with a 70 hit grade and 55 power, one can make the case for strong production to continue even if it looks different (such as a higher batting average).
- Alec Burleson – 115 wRC+. He has a track record at this level, so this is reasonable.
- Jordan Walker – 153 wRC+. If this holds up, Walker is a top ten hitter in baseball. Maybe that’s optimistic, but the breakout is backed by Statcast.
- Nolan Gorman – 81 wRC+. He hasn’t really hit since 2023, though he’s OK against righties and looks fine at third base this year. If the Astros fall further, could the Cardinals make a trade for Isaac Paredes?
- Masyn Winn – 103 wRC+. He’s hitting to expectations.
- Victor Scott II – 39 wRC+. Scott isn’t in there for his bat, but seems best-suited for a fourth outfielder role.
- Nathan Church – 106 wRC+. The speedy 25-year-old came into the year as just a 40-grade prospect and may also lack the bat to be a starter, but he hit well in the upper minors. I’m not sure I’d want Scott and Church in the same lineup, but they are a strong defensive pair. Thomas Saggese is in this mix, and prospect Joshua Baez could join it if he cuts down on strikeouts.
- Pedro Pages – 106 wRC+. Pages does have a little bit of pop, but he probably can’t keep this up.
Lars Nootbaar underwent surgery in October to address deformities in his heels, and could be a great June addition capable of a 115-120 wRC+. If Nootbaar has a setback, a trade for the aforementioned Duran or Marsh could be interesting. You can’t help but wonder how good this offense would look had the Cardinals retained Contreras and Brendan Donovan, though.
Bottom line, though: there’s something here with this offense, especially if Nootbaar can provide a boost. And this also seems to be one of the better defenses in the NL. What about the pitching side?
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