Roberto De Zerbi’s Tottenham side turn out on Monday night knowing that three points against Leeds would put the most significant dent yet in West Ham’s survival hopes.
One point separates the two clubs, but both face a terrifying run of fixtures, in the final two weeks of the Premier League season.
Spurs sit 17th with 37 points. West Ham are 18th with 36. Crucially, Tottenham have a game in hand and how tonight lands will shape the final stretch.
De Zerbi has been clear that there is no room for complacency, even with momentum firmly behind him after wins over Wolves and Aston Villa in recent weeks.
“We have to not forget what the situation was before Wolves. It was a very sad situation and these memories have to stay in our heads,” he said after Sunday’s 2-1 win at Villa Park.
“We have to stay focused for the next game.”
Relegation battle permutations
Should Tottenham win at home to Leeds, they will move onto 40 points with two games remaining, against Chelsea and then Everton. West Ham stay on 36 with two games left against Newcastle and Leeds.
From that position, Spurs would need just one win from their final two matches to guarantee survival mathematically. A win against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, or at home to Everton on the final day, would put them beyond reach regardless of what West Ham do.
For West Ham to still stay up from that scenario, they would need to win both of their remaining games and hope Spurs take nothing from Chelsea and Everton.
If both those things happen, the Hammers would finish two points above their London foes.
If Spurs draw against Leeds
Tottenham move to 38 points, West Ham remain on 36, with two games remaining each. Both sides would need wins to feel anything close to safe. A Spurs slip against Chelsea combined with a West Ham win at Newcastle, would put the North London club back into the bottom three.
If Spurs lose against Leeds
The gap between the two clubs stays at one point with two games remaining each and the door reopens completely for West Ham.
A West Ham win over Newcastle combined with a Spurs defeat to Chelsea would see the Hammers leapfrog them into 17th. From that position, either club could go down on the final day.
West Ham’s run
Nuno Espirito Santo’s side face Newcastle before a final-day clash with Leeds. Newcastle nothing to play for, but it is their final home game of the season.
Leeds are fighting for a top-half finish and have been one of the form sides in the division since Daniel Farke switched to a 3-5-2 in November.
Both games are winnable in theory. But West Ham have won just three league games since the end of February, and Sunday’s result at the London Stadium left deep psychological wounds.
Callum Wilson’s stoppage-time effort, which appeared to have salvaged a point against Arsenal, was ruled out after a VAR review confirmed Pablo had fouled David Raya.
Tottenham’s run
After Leeds tonight, Tottenham face Chelsea at Stamford Bridge before hosting Everton on the final day. Chelsea have had a miserable finish to their own season. Everton are still in the running for Europe. On paper, the run looks tougher than West Ham’s.
De Zerbi has transformed the mentality inside the dressing room in a short space of time, and the likes of Joao Palhinha, on loan from Bayern Munich, as well as January signing Conor Gallagher, have been instrumental in the run-in.
Add the anticipated return of James Maddison, who is rumoured to finally get some minutes after recovering from an ACL injury, and Spurs may sail away with their momentum.
Spurs’ fate is in their own hands. Win against Leeds and it could be enough to keep them up. Lose tonight and the picture darkens.
For West Ham, the arithmetic is simple. They need Spurs to slip and then win their own remaining games.
In a season this chaotic, very little can be ruled out. But if De Zerbi’s side take three points at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Monday night, it will take something truly extraordinary for West Ham to escape.
