Georgia Republicans head to the polls on Tuesday to pick a candidate to challenge Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff in November, but they aren’t getting direction from President Trump on who to choose.
The Georgia Senate race is the GOP’s only real shot at taking out a Democratic incumbent this cycle, although the party is targeting a few states where Democratic senators are retiring.
The protracted Republican primary, which is likely to extend to a June runoff, has allowed Mr. Ossoff to build a massive campaign war chest and begin reintroducing himself to voters without a direct opponent attacking his every move.
Five Republicans are running in the Georgia Senate primary, but it is effectively a three-way race between Reps. Mike Collins, Earl L. “Buddy” Carter and former football coach Derek Dooley.
Mr. Trump has not endorsed any of the candidates, although all three are touting their alignment with the president in hopes of winning support from the MAGA base.
Mr. Collins has consistently led in the polls, but the percentage of undecided voters heading into election day remains high.
He is still well positioned to place first but would need most fence sitters to break his way to earn more than 50% of the vote and avoid a runoff.
If no candidate earns an outright majority of the vote, the top two finishers will advance to the June 16 runoff.
The most recent poll of likely GOP primary voters from Quantus Insights showed Mr. Collins leading with 33% support over Mr. Dooley with 23% and Mr. Carter at 14%.
However, 29% of the 1,677 voters surveyed between April 28 and May 2 were still undecided.
“Collins is not simply ahead; he is first or near first almost everywhere. His coalition is broad,” Quantus Insights said in its analysis of the poll.
“Collins leads among men and women, among Strong GOP and Lean GOP voters, across education groups, and in rural and suburban areas,” the pollster said. “He performs especially well in North Georgia, the Black Belt, rural white Georgia … and the Macon [area].”
Quantus said Mr. Dooley leads in the Atlanta metropolitan area and is competitive in the Atlanta suburbs, while Mr. Carter’s base is largely limited to his coastal Georgia district that includes Savannah.
Mr. Dooley, who was recruited and endorsed by his friend, Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, more than doubled his level of support from Quantus’ February polling, which had him at 9%.
Quantis attributes that to Mr. Kemp hitting the campaign trail with Mr. Dooley last month. Republican leaders tried to recruit Mr. Kemp to run against Mr. Ossoff, but he declined.
A Georgia Republican strategist, who requested anonymity to discuss the party dynamics playing out behind the scenes, said the Collins campaign wants Mr. Dooley to place second.
Their thinking is that Mr. Trump will remain on the sidelines if the two members of Congress advance, but he would endorse Mr. Collins in a head-to-head matchup against Mr. Dooley, the strategist said.
Yet, if Mr. Dooley can come within striking distance of Mr. Collins in the first round of voting, that would show he is continuing to gain momentum and could change the calculus.
Republicans taking out Mr. Ossoff “was going to be hard no matter what,” but the delay in having a candidate for the party to rally around has made that harder, especially from a fundraising perspective, the strategist said.
The GOP contenders started with a massive fundraising disadvantage behind Mr. Ossoff’s already hefty war chest and are burning through campaign cash faster because of the primary competition.
Mr. Collins, the likely nominee, is “a high-energy campaigner, and certainly has a certain performance style to him that has worked for him, but we don’t have reason to believe he’s going to be a great national fundraiser and raise $30 million,” the strategist said. “It’s going to be tricky.”
Mr. Ossoff has raised $60 million so far this cycle and has nearly $33 million cash on hand, according to his most recent fundraising report.
By contrast, Mr. Collins has raised just under $5 million. Mr. Carter raised a little more and Mr. Dooley a little less than Mr. Collins, but all three candidates have less than $2 million still available to spend.
