Americans heading to the pump this Memorial Day weekend will face the highest prices in years, with the national average forecast to hit $4.48 per gallon — up $1.34 from the same holiday last year — as the Strait of Hormuz closure continues to strangle global oil supplies.
Fuel savings platform GasBuddy released its 2026 Summer Travel Survey on Wednesday, projecting the national average will climb to $4.80 per gallon over the full summer driving season from Memorial Day through Labor Day — a figure that would shatter the prior summer record of $4.43 per gallon set in 2022. If the strait remains blocked for much of the season, prices could exceed $5 per gallon and potentially set all-time records, the company warned.
“This is the most volatile summer at the pump in years, and the Strait of Hormuz closure is at the center of it,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “Americans are going to pay billions more to get where they’re going this summer, and even after the Strait reopens, it could take a year or more for prices to fully recover.”
The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, which began Feb. 28, effectively shut down the waterway through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil trade normally passes. Refinery conditions, the approaching Atlantic hurricane season, OPEC production and falling global inventories are adding further upward pressure, GasBuddy said.
The surge is reshaping summer travel plans. While 56% of Americans still intend to drive more than two hours this summer, that is down from 69% last year, according to GasBuddy’s survey, conducted May 15–18 among a random sample of its users. Cost has become the dominant travel consideration, cited by 53% of respondents as a top priority, with 67% saying gas prices are directly affecting their driving plans and 36% saying they are taking fewer road trips altogether as a result.
Despite the pullback, a record 39.1 million Americans are still expected to travel by car this Memorial Day weekend, according to AAA — little changed from 39 million last year.
The financial strain is prompting relief efforts at both the state and federal levels. Several states have moved to suspend their gas taxes in recent months, and President Trump and congressional Republicans have floated suspending the federal tax of 18.4 cents per gallon, though doing so would require an act of Congress.
Travelers are adapting in the meantime. GasBuddy found that 83% of respondents plan to use its app to locate the lowest prices nearby, and most said they are willing to drive two to three miles out of their way to save at the pump.
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