Who could have seen this coming?
To the surprise of nobody at all, people are continuing to abuse prediction markets to make a quick buck. Or according to accusations recently levied against a Google employee, a million quick bucks. Software engineer Michele Spagnuolo has been accused of using insider information from his employer to place bets on Polymarket about common Google search subjects. A federal criminal complaint has charged Spagnuolo with commodities fraud, wire fraud and money laundering. He allegedly earned $1.2 million after betting that the top-searched person on Google for 2025 would be singer d4vd, then tried to hide the source of his sudden windfall.
A Google spokesperson shared the following statement with ABC News regarding the case: “We’re working with law enforcement on their investigation. The employee accessed our marketing material using a tool available to all employees, but using such confidential information to place bets is a serious breach of our policies. We’ve placed the employee on leave and will take the appropriate action.”
Insider trading has been making headlines with some regularity on prediction markets. Everyone from an employee of YouTuber MrBeast to political candidates to military personnel have tried to turn privileged information into money on these platforms. Some people have allegedly gotten up to even stranger hijinks to try and scam the bets. Polymarket adopted new rules in March specifically to cut down on insider trading, but only time will tell whether the policies are effective.
