Democrats are looking for a path to winning more Congressional seats in the future. One way may be to court more rural voters.
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Democrats see an opportunity now that Ken Paxton, a controversial MAGA loyalist, is the Republican nominee for Senate in Texas. But even with their preferred Republican on the ballot, Democrats still face major headwinds in Texas’ midterm elections. One solution, as NPR’s Mara Liasson reports, may be for Democrats to court rural voters in red states.
MARA LIASSON, BYLINE: Losing red state rural voters is not a new problem for Democrats. They’ve been losing them for a very long time.
CELINDA LAKE: Democrats, ever since Obama, actually, have been hemorrhaging rural votes, and particularly for Senate races but also for a number of congressional and presidential races.
LIASSON: That’s pollster Celinda Lake, originally from rural Montana. She’s watched as the Republican advantage with rural voters grew from a relatively narrow five-point advantage in 2000 to a whopping 25-point edge for Trump with rural voters in 2024. Lake recently conducted a poll of 600 likely general election voters from rural areas in battleground states. And what these voters – identified in the poll by first name only – had to say about Democrats is damning. Here’s Tony F.
TONY F: Out of touch with what I call middle America.
LIASSON: And John B.
JOHN B: They’re lost in space. They have no platform. All they want to do is spend money and give stuff away.
LIASSON: Celinda Lake.
LAKE: The Democratic brand is in terrible shape in rural America. That’s our biggest thing, is we have to repair our brand. But their level of dissatisfaction is very high, and Trump’s numbers are much lower than they have been in the past.
LIASSON: And that’s the opportunity for Democrats, says Lake. Rural voters still favor Republicans, but they’re angry – about tariffs, about higher prices for gasoline and fertilizer and groceries. Her takeaway from the poll is that Democrats should be running to keep rural hospitals open and insulin prices down. In other words, Democrats don’t have to change their positions to win rural voters. They just have to fight harder for what they already believe in.
LAKE: Our bigger problem is not that we are perceived to be too woke, but that we’re perceived to be too weak. We need to stand up to pharmaceutical companies who are despised in rural America, stand up to data centers who are despised in rural America, stand up to the tech bros who are despised in rural America.
LIASSON: According to Dee Davis, the president of the Center for Rural Strategies, the group that commissioned this poll, Democrats have no one but themselves to blame for the hole they’re in.
DEE DAVIS: If they hadn’t abandoned rural America and put the resources somewhere else, they might be in better shape right now.
LIASSON: Davis says Democrats believed they could win without rural votes.
DAVIS: I don’t think it’s worked out the way they expected.
LIASSON: For Davis, there’s no downside to trying to woo rural voters. After all, college-educated urban voters also care about healthcare, gas prices and jobs. The strategy Davis thinks Democrats should adopt is not rocket science.
DAVIS: You got to show up. You got to talk to people. You might not win the first time out, but you got to be there and compete.
LIASSON: Democrats’ problems in this year’s midterms may be daunting, but a few years from now, the problems will be even worse.
LUCAS HOLTZ: By the time 2031 rolls along, estimates from The American Redistricting Project show that blue states could be at risk of losing 11 congressional districts.
LIASSON: That’s Lucas Holtz, who does electoral analysis for the center-left think tank Third Way. After the 2030 census, Congress will be reapportioned according to population. That means states that have declining populations – like Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania – will get fewer congressional seats, and that means fewer Electoral College votes, while states that gain population will get more congressional seats and more electors.
HOLTZ: With the bulk of those going to the South, in states like Texas, Florida, in Georgia, in North Carolina.
LIASSON: After the 2030 census, Democrats can’t hope to win a majority of House seats or a majority of Electoral College votes if they can’t win more support from voters in rural parts of what are now red states. Mara Liasson, NPR News.
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