Government agencies are eyeing advancements in air transportation over the next decade: electric planes and fully autonomous flight.
Advanced Air Mobility, a government-industry effort to transform flight through new types of aircraft, technologies and operating procedures, has ambitious goals, according to a new Government Accountability Office report.
The initiative estimates initial operations for electric planes by 2027 and operations in some urban and rural areas by 2030. It also predicts fully autonomous flight by 2035.
The near-term opportunity for advanced aircraft includes air taxis, regional service to underserved airports, cargo delivery and pilot training.
Beginning in July, the Federal Aviation Administration will allow some lightweight aircraft to be powered by electric propulsion without exemptions — a small but concrete step forward.
Electric propulsion technology for larger aircraft is in the early stages of development, but commercial flights are not likely to enter service in the next 20 years, according to the report.
Electric advancements for commercial use, including a Boeing 737, may be developed by mid-century due to the necessary technology not being widely available yet. Batteries for aircraft the size of a Boeing 737 may not be ready until mid-century.
Aircraft manufacturers are developing electric aircraft to transport cargo and carry passengers, which is part of the joint effort. Electric aircraft could reduce noise, operating costs and emissions; make smaller regional airports more accessible; and help create new jobs.
The Federal Aviation Administration has not yet certified an electric aircraft for commercial operations, but it is evaluating electric aircraft and engine designs for certification on a case-by-case basis.
Regulatory changes that could standardize the agency’s approach to evaluating these products in the long term, such as developing dedicated airworthiness standards for electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft, are also under consideration.
The reason such efforts are long-term instead of short-term is threefold: the certification process is struggling to keep up, infrastructure is thin and battery fire guidance is lacking.
What’s more is the chicken-and-egg problem. The viability of the business model for electric aircraft uses such as air taxis is untested, creating uncertainty for airports about whether to invest in supporting infrastructure, even though the success of the industry depends on it.
The industry shows concrete advances but still faces regulatory bottlenecks that will likely push meaningful commercial deployment well into the 2030s.
