The Cubs provided an update on left-hander Justin Steele this week, as relayed by Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic. The southpaw has been cleared to progress to strengthening and then plyo balls but is still multiple weeks away from throwing a baseball.
Steele underwent surgery to address the ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow in April of last year. He was throwing off a mound by January of 2026 and there was some optimism about a fairly early return this season. That didn’t come to pass. He hit a setback in late April when he suffered a flexor strain, with manager Craig Counsell saying at that time that they no longer expected Steele back before the All-Star break.
Counsell tried to frame this week’s update as positive, in the sense that Steele is now going to start progressing through some standard recovery steps. However, it does feel as though his timeline has been pushed again. As laid out by Sharma, even in a best-case scenario, Steele will start throwing again in the middle of June. After ramping up for a bit, he could go out on a rehab assignment in July and perhaps return in August. Any further setbacks would start to put his season in jeopardy.
“We’re just hopeful to get him back,” president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said this week. “Obviously, there comes a point where you run out of days, but I don’t think we’re there yet. I know Justin wants to come back more than anything.”
It’s a frustrating situation for Steele and the team. The lefty was a solid member of the rotation from 2022 to 2024, posting a 3.10 earned run average in 78 starts. He was only able to make four starts in 2025 before getting injured. Whether he can top four starts this year is up in the air. Even if he does beat that figure, it won’t be by much.
As of a few months ago, the Cubs were dreaming of a scenario where their rotation core consisted of Steele, Cade Horton, Edward Cabrera and Matthew Boyd this summer. Instead, all four are on the IL. Horton required Tommy John surgery in April and is done for the year. Boyd had meniscus surgery in May and is still on the mend. Cabrera landed on the shelf last week due to a blister.
That has left the Cubs with a starting group consisting of Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, Colin Rea, Ben Brown and Jordan Wicks. Brown is running with the opportunity, with a 2.01 ERA on the year. Imanaga and Rea are posting passable numbers. Taillon has a 5.37 ERA thanks to a spike in home runs. Wicks just got called up from the minors and his first start of the year didn’t go well, as he allowed eight earned runs in 4 1/3 innings.
There’s obviously a big gap between the way the Cubs drew it up and the way it’s playing out. There is some good news in the short term. Sharma relays that Cabrera is expected to return after a minimal stint, so he could be back in about a week. The plan for Boyd is for him to make two rehab starts, the first of which is scheduled for Sunday, so he could be back in a couple of weeks. If everyone else stays healthy, the returns of Cabrera and Boyd could push Wicks back to the minors and someone else to the bullpen.
Those tidbits are somewhat encouraging but also come with asterisks. Cabrera has dealt with blisters throughout his career, with IL stints for them in 2021 and 2025. He’s also been fairly prone to injuries more broadly, having hit 100 innings in a season just once in his career. Boyd also has a spotty health track record, with just one season over 80 innings in this decade.
Even if that group stays somewhat stable for the next few months, it seems fair to expect the Cubs to be looking for more starting pitching this summer. Steele’s status might be more clear as the August 3rd deadline approaches but it will probably be hard to rely on him galloping in to save the day, based on how things have played out this year.
Photo courtesy of Ed Szczepanski, Imagn Images
