Seventeen months of Donald Trump’s presidency have taken a toll on his popularity among Latinos. In the 2024 election, one factor that helped the Republican return to the White House was historic support from the Latino community, primarily among men. If Hispanics have traditionally leaned toward the Democratic Party, the 2024 vote reversed that trend and, among men, Latino votes favored Trump. However, one in four Latino voters who supported him would not do so again. That is what the latest bipartisan poll released Wednesday by the Latino organization UnidosUS shows: 67% of respondents disapprove of the president’s performance, compared with 30% who approve. Sixty-eight percent say the country is headed in the wrong direction. The survey was conducted among 3,000 Latino voters between April 27 and May 14.
If the November midterm elections were held today, more than half of Hispanic voters would back Democrats (54% versus 27%). However, both parties’ numbers are below their 2024 support levels, which likely signals voter discontent. Notably, a high share — 19% — say they are undecided.
“Some respondents won’t even admit they voted for Trump […] These are not very good signs. Latinos voting for Republican candidates is a relatively new phenomenon, and losing that support is a problem [for the Republican Party],” explains Daron Shaw, a professor in the Department of Government at the University of Texas. In April of last year, 82% of Trump’s Hispanic voters said they would stick with their choice; in November that share fell to 78%. That it now drops to 75% shows “a slow process of erosion,” Shaw says.
The priorities that determine Latino voting have not changed since 2024, with the economy the top concern. It is on this issue that Latino voters who backed Trump have been most disappointed. While promises of improved family finances were a central element of the Republican’s 2024 campaign, reality has been very different. With the Iran war driving up inflation and the Republican anti-immigration campaign affecting household incomes, 36% of Latinos surveyed say their situation has worsened, while 50% believe it is the same.
More worrying are their projections for their finances under the current administration in the near future. When asked how they see their economic situation next year, 52% are pessimistic and believe their finances will worsen, compared with 27% who expect them to stay the same and 21% who think they will improve. “That is an unprecedented level of pessimism for a group that has historically expressed optimistic views about the short- and long-term future,” notes Gary Segura of BSP Research, which conducted the poll alongside Shaw & Company Research.
Economic concerns are the four main issues Hispanic voters want elected officials to address: the cost of food and basic living expenses, wages, and housing and healthcare costs.
A harassed community
Although it is the primary issue, the economy is not the only area that has disappointed Latinos. The administration’s immigration policies and its campaign of mass arrests and deportations — where Latinos have been the most-affected group — have also eroded support for the Republican. The poll shows how life has changed for a community harassed by immigration raids, in which racial profiling plays an important role in detentions.
Forty-four percent say they fear harassment or detention despite having U.S. citizenship or legal immigration status. Thirty-two percent say they have lost employees at their businesses because those workers fear being arrested on their way to work. Twenty-nine percent of respondents say their children stay home and do not go to school for fear they will be detained when being dropped off or picked up. Two-thirds of respondents reject Republican proposals to bar undocumented children from attending public schools, and nearly the same share opposes providing more funding to the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency (ICE), a proposal Republican senators are preparing to advance without Democratic support.
In the face of government policies aimed at stripping the legal status of many migrants by eliminating programs such as Temporary Protected Status (TPS), DACA (Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals) and asylum and refugee programs, 83% of Latinos support programs to legalize long-term residents. Notably, 78% of independents and 75% of those who identify as Republicans also support legalization. There is also a shift regarding border protection, one of the top topics in Trump’s campaign that attracted many voters upset by the large influx of migrants during Joe Biden’s administration. For the first time, more Latinos (40%) trust Democrats on this issue than Republicans (34%).
Behind the economy and immigration policy, the Iran war is the factor that most unsettles Latino voters. Nearly eight in 10 voters believe the president should be required to get congressional approval before undertaking military action against another country. Two-thirds of Hispanic voters (64%) oppose the war in Iran. Opposition to possible military action against Cuba is slightly lower (57%).
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