It’s no secret the upcoming free agent class is one of the weakest in recent memory. Aside from Tarik Skubal, who should do very well despite the bone chips surgery that cost him a couple months in his walk year, there’s a lack of impact talent. Most of the focus has been on the lackluster hitting group, but there haven’t been many impending free agent starters staking a claim to a significant contract either.
Freddy Peralta has been the clear #2 arm in the class. He’s having a solid but not exceptional first year with the Mets, struggling to complete six innings while posting a career-low 24% strikeout rate. Peralta still seems on track for the second-largest contract, in large part because none of the prime-aged pitchers have made a strong push to unseat him.
Among impending free agent starters, the top performers through the season’s first two months are all on the older side. Kevin Gausman (age 36 in 2027), Michael King (32), and Nick Martinez (36) have been the top performers. 34-year-old Clay Holmes was among that group until a Spencer Jones comebacker broke his right fibula. All those pitchers are trending toward significant annual salaries, but only King has much of a chance at topping three years. Holmes’ injury and Martinez’s subpar strikeout rate could keep them each at two.
[Related: Which Impending Free Agents Are Actually Improving Their Stock?]
There has been a fairly defined cutoff for the market’s willingness to go long term on pitchers. In the past decade, only four free agent starters 32 or older have commanded four or more years: Jacob deGrom, Blake Snell, Hyun Jin Ryu and Nick Pivetta. The Pivetta deal was three-year money spread out over four for luxury tax purposes. Four years at that age has essentially been reserved for aces.
By contrast, there have been 10 free agent contracts of at least four years for 31-year-old starters in that time. Teams have treated that as a meaningful cutoff, leaving the door open for a pitcher in that age range to emerge as the second- or third-best arm in the class.
MLBTR’s early April free agent power rankings offer a snapshot of which players we thought had the best chance to push Peralta for the #2 arm available. Let’s check in on every 31 and under starter who either made our initial Power Ranking or the honorable mentions. For all but one, the first two months of the season have been bleak.
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