The New England Patriots probably overpaid in the blockbuster trade with the Philadelphia Eagles for wide receiver A.J. Brown.
The Patriots gave up a 2028 first-round pick and a 2027 first-round selection for Brown, the 28-year-old Super Bowl champion that wanted a fresh start away from Philadelphia.
According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel never wanted to trade Brown to the Eagles when he was coaching the Tennessee Titans. Now, the defensive-minded Vrabel lands a wide receiver that he’s comfortable with to help the Patriots get one step closer to raising another Super Bowl banner following their loss against the Seattle Seahawks in February.
The 2028 first-round pick is a huge price to pay. That’s two drafts away, and there’s no guarantee that the Patriots, or any organization, will be able to replicate their successful 2025 season three years in a row. Even though Vrabel and Patriots young quarterback Drake Maye seem to be the next elite combination in Foxborough, nothing is guaranteed in the NFL. Trading a first round draft pick two years into the future is always a big gamble.
That gamble all depends on Brown’s ability to return to form with the Patriots.
After winning the Super Bowl with Philadelphia in 2024, Brown became increasingly fed up with his role in Kevin Patullo’s offense. Despite Brown’s frustration with Philadelphia, he still caught 78 passes for 1,003 yards and seven touchdowns in 15 games during what would become his final season with the Eagles.
If Brown’s sour attitude follows him to New England, or reappears at any point before the 2029 NFL Draft, the Patriots might look back and wince at this trade.
The 28-year-old wasn’t an All-Pro last season for the first time since 2021 with the Titans, which was the only season of his career that Brown failed to eclipse 1,000 receiving yards. Brown turns 29 in June, so there will be natural questions about whether or not his best football is behind him.
How the Patriots could win this trade
Considering that New England will send their 2028 first-round pick to Philadelphia, the Patriots will need him to be dominant through the 2029 campaign.
He’s set to become an unrestricted free agent in 2030, at age 33.
This is obviously a calculated gamble. If Brown could be Maye’s unquestioned wide receiver No. 1 over the next four seasons, this is a home run for the Patriots. Brown understands what it takes to win a Super Bowl and he joins a franchise in New England that rebounded quickly, but now expects another championship.
The joy of having Maye on a rookie quarterback contract allows the Patriots to take big swings like this. The risk comes in if they take an unexpected step back in 2027, which is still a full season away. A lot can happen between now and then. But as long as Brown is still catching touchdowns and eclipsing 1,000 yard seasons, this is a gamble that seems worth taking.
