It’s an easy year for predicting NFL quarterback competitions.
As teams across the NFL landscape put a bow on voluntary OTAs this week before turning the page to mandatory veteran minicamps, quarterback competitions will begin to take form.
This year, it feels like the quarterback competitions are a little bit more obvious than they’ve been in previous years. Let’s look at the obvious winners first, before we get into some of the more complex battles.
Minnesota Vikings: Kyler Murray
There’s no way that Murray signed with the Vikings in free agency without some sort of guarantee that he’d have an upper hand over J.J. McCarthy.
The Vikings should probably give up on McCarthy, the No. 10 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, who underwhelmed during his first season as the starter, throwing more interceptions than touchdown passes. Minnesota employed Justin Jefferson, the best receiver in the NFL. The Vikings should see if Murray could get Jefferson the football and turn his career around similar to Sam Darnold a few seasons ago.
Indianapolis Colts: Daniel Jones
Oct 19, 2025; Inglewood, California, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones (17) speaks with head coach Shane Steichen in the first quarter against the Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images At the NFL Combine in Indianapolis, the Colts gave Anthony Richardson’s representatives permission to seek a trade.
While Richardson could still be moved before Week 1 in mid-September, it feels like there aren’t many suitors for the 24-year-old quarterback. The Colts looked prime to finish as a top seed in the AFC before Jones ruptured his Achilles tendon last season. He’s a no-brainer QB1 in 2026, assuming he’s fully recovered.
Atlanta Falcons: Tua Tagovailoa
Kevin Stefanski just can’t help himself from starting quarterback controversies. He arrived in Atlanta with Michael Penix Jr. on his rookie deal after the Falcons selected the former Washington quarterback with the No. 8 overall selection in 2024.
Injuries have complicated Penix’s outlook, clearing the way for the veteran Tagovailoa to start the season in Atlanta.
The Falcons gave Stefanski a high price tag coaching contract to turn Atlanta around in a very winnable division. Expect the former two-time Coach of the Year to trust Tagovailoa over Penix.
Las Vegas Raiders: Kirk Cousins
Aug 23, 2025; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Detailed view of a Las Vegas Raiders helmet during a preseason NFL game at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images The Raiders gave Cousins a five-year, $172 million contract, but the deal is essentially a one-year, fully guaranteed $20 million contract. It’s split between the Raiders and Falcons, who had to release him after just two seasons.
$20 million is an expensive backup. The Raiders could decide to let the veteran start the first few games before turning the keys over to No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza.
Cleveland Browns: Shedeur Sanders
Even though all reports indicate that Deshaun Watson is ahead of Shedeur Sanders to start Cleveland’s quarterback competition, the Myles Garrett trade to the Los Angeles Rams should change some things.
There’s no denying that the youth movement is underway in Cleveland, moving on from Garrett in favor of 25-year-old EDGE Jared Verse. That benefits Sanders, who is six years younger than Watson.
Watson hasn’t played good football since 2020, and after three big injuries and two full seasons on the sideline, it’s impossible to expect the 30-year-old to return to form in the final year of the disastrous contract he received upon arriving in Cleveland.
