Adam Chernoff’s CFL picks: Argos-Alouettes total, B.C. Lions underdogs against Riders

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Week 1 in the Canadian Football League started with a bang for yours truly.

Montreal, Winnipeg, and Edmonton each cashed and our favourite play hit as the Blue Bombers delivered a walk-off win in Calgary. That gives us confidence heading into another three-game slate.

Below are my picks for Week 2.

Toronto-Montreal over 51.5 (-110)

I liked everything about how Montreal’s offence looked in Week 1. Something I look for as a bettor is offences running “real” plays early in the season, rather than going through motions trying to find footing. Montreal’s offence featured play fakes and moving backfields consistently throughout the offence.

Davis Alexander was throwing into tight windows on timing routes with confidence and his receivers were on the same page. I like this unit to move the ball consistently against an Argos defence that I have low expectations for early in the year.

Defensively, I felt the opposite about the Alouettes — I thought they looked passive and lacked aggression. This could be due to deep ball threats of Hamilton, or it could be making up for lost veterans in the offseason. They conceded the sticks multiple times, allowing Hamilton to keep drives moving on 61 percent of chances.

Toronto’s offensive ceiling is relatively unknown with Chad Kelly coming back after a long time off, but I like their chances to start fast. Notes from training camp are that new, first-time head coach Mike Miller worked guys extremely hard. With him calling plays, there was an emphasis to get his stuff installed early.

At 51.5, this is a below league-average total, and with these quarterbacks and offences, I like the over.

Note: Forecasts call for thunderstorms (75 percent) in the 7:00 to 8:00 p.m. window, which is right around kickoff. Typically, I would not want to bet an over with this type of weather. However, with the high likelihood of thunder, this looks like more of a delay potential than a sustained impact for four quarters.

B.C. Lions (+110)

I love the Lions entering the season and am thrilled to get this offence at plus money in the opener.

In 2025, the unit averaged 8.0 yards per play and with all of the key pieces returning around Nathan Rourke, the ceiling is even higher in 2026. I don’t think there is any unit in the league — either side of the ball — I am more certain of being great than this one. It just so happens this matchup is against the Riders defence, which I think is wildly overrated with a lot of questions.

Corey Mace has conceded play-calling duties after leading the unit to top-three ratings across all key categories and a title last season. While it’s something “they have been planning for a while” internally, a debut play-calling experience against this Lions offence is not a spot I have confidence in Josh Bell to get it right.

Five of the front-seven have turned over, which was a key source of attack last year, with only one returning starter. The pressure was key to elevating an elite secondary, and while this coaching staff could get it right, doing so in the team’s season opener against this offence is brutal.

This secondary could start slower than expected without the luxury of the pass rush upfront. It also eases questions in this matchup about the Lions biggest weakness, which is their offensive line.

I like the Lions to win straight up, and wouldn’t shy away from looking at some alternate spreads as well.

*Season record: 3-0 (+3.25x)

Adam Chernoff has been betting on sports and bookmaking for the past 17 years. While he is known across the industry for NFL expertise, he bets on CFL from his home in Saskatoon during the summer.