Free Agent Power Rankings: The Next Five

MLBTR published our updated iteration of the Free Agent Power Rankings on Monday. That includes full breakdowns of our top 10 in the class. Darragh McDonald and Steve Adams also devoted much of this week’s podcast to breaking down the process and debates about the back half of that list.

It’s certainly the weakest class in recent memory. That’s most acute at the top behind Tarik Skubal and Freddy Peralta. There might not be a third nine-figure player in the class. While that makes it a less exciting group overall, it also leaves the middle tiers more muddled. Some players in the 11-20 range right now could jump into the top five. Others who were arguably near the top of the class a couple months ago (e.g. Bo Bichette, Trevor Rogers) have dropped even more quickly.

As we did after our first version in April, we’ll run through the next five players who weren’t far off the list. They’re ordered here alphabetically, but it also works out that the first name is the player who was our consensus #11.

Kevin Gausman, SP, Blue Jays

Gausman will land among the top 10 in the class in terms of average annual value. There’s an argument that he’s the second-best player for 2027 alone behind Skubal. His numbers over the past three-plus seasons are at least quite comparable to Peralta’s. The only hangup is age.

The two-time All-Star will play all of next season at 36. Max Scherzer is the only free agent starter 36 or older to sign for three years since 2017; Scherzer’s $130MM deal with the Mets started at age 37. Nathan Eovaldi was entering his age-35 season when he re-signed with Texas for three years and $75MM. Merrill Kelly signed for two years and $40MM last offseason at 37.

Gausman hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down. He carries a 3.60 ERA across 80 innings. He’s averaging just under six innings per start and has managed a quality start in half of his outings. He has above-average strikeout and whiff rates while very rarely issuing free passes. He’s no longer a Cy Young candidate like Scherzer and Justin Verlander were in their late 30s, but he’s probably a tier above Kelly and Chris Bassitt.

The veteran righty should be in the $25-30MM range on an annual basis, which would put him in the Eovaldi bucket. If he gets to three years, he’ll very likely wind up with one of the 10 largest contracts in the class. That’d be tough to accomplish on a two-year deal, even in a thin group. Gausman is ineligible for a qualifying offer after receiving one from the Giants in 2020, so he won’t be attached to draft compensation.