In this week’s Mailbag, we’ll dive into Sonny Gray‘s trade candidacy and which clubs stand out as the best fits for him. We’ll also look at the factors the Cardinals need to consider when weighing a Dustin May trade (and what’s a realistic asking price for him), whether the Giants should trade or extend Luis Arraez, and Andy Pages‘ importance to the Dodgers amid a career-best season.
Steve asks…
Could Sonny Days be coming for Mr. Gray? Where do you see Boston potentially trading Sonny Gray to??
The most popular speculative answer you’ll see in the weeks ahead will be Atlanta. Gray is a natural target for them — the Braves could badly use a durable, stabilizing veteran who’s a viable option to start a postseason game — and Atlanta itself is less than a four-hour drive from Gray’s Nashville home. Geography has been a factor for him in past contract decisions; he signed an extension with the Reds immediately upon being traded there back in 2019, and he signed his free agent deal with the Cardinals in the 2023-24 offseason.
The fit checks a lot of boxes, but it’s far from the only sensible one. Location might matter to Gray but clearly isn’t the be-all and end-all. He approved a trade to Boston back in November, after all. Atlanta is a real fit, but I expect the match to be more strongly framed as a likelihood than is probably the case in reality.
Conversely, it seems fair to all but write off the Yankees. They’re Boston’s archrival. Gray has pitched there in the past, and it didn’t go well. He had some pointed and antagonistic comments regarding the Yankees at the time of his trade. Back in December, Gray said the Yankees weren’t a great fit for his family and that he “never wanted to go there in the first place.” That might be forgivable on its own, but he followed by stating: “[I]t feels good to me to go to a place now where, you know what, it’s easy to hate the Yankees. It’s easy to go out and have that rivalry and go into it with full force, full steam ahead. I like the challenge.”
That’s some low-hanging fruit. We’ll get into a deeper look at his potential market momentarily. First, as an aside, I should say I do expect the Red Sox to eventually trade Gray. There are always caveats this time of year that deadline directions can shift in a matter of days. That’s true of Boston, too, but I was skeptical of Boston’s lineup even back during spring training. (I still picked them to make the playoffs. Whoops.) That was when it was reasonable to expect big performances from Roman Anthony, a rebound from Jarren Duran and at least something close to average production from Trevor Story. Now, the Red Sox rank last in MLB with 301 runs scored. They have three regulars who’ve posted even average offensive numbers. They’re buried in the division. The Rockies are the only team in MLB with fewer wins. The Sox can maintain an optimistic stance in public comments, but all signs point to them being deadline sellers.
Secondly, it’s worth laying out the basics on Gray. Just about any MLB fan is familiar with his broader track record, but some basics covering his current status. Gray is 36 (37 in November) and earning $41MM this season. The Cardinals are on the hook for $20MM of that. The Red Sox owe him $11MM in salary and a $10MM buyout on a 2027 mutual option that won’t be exercised by both parties. (Mutual options never are these days.) A new team would owe the remainder of that $11MM salary plus the $10MM buyout, but the Sox could kick in cash to pay some of that down. Gray is sitting on a 2.95 ERA but has his lowest strikeout rate (21.1%) since 2018. His 6.4% walk rate is very good but is still his highest since 2023. Metrics like SIERA (3.88) and FIP (3.81) feel his ERA should probably be a run higher. Gray is a very good pitcher, but he’s closer to mid-rotation starter than to ace at this point.
Now, let’s take a deeper look at Gray’s potential suitors and try to find his best and likeliest landing spots.
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