An annual survey finds the cost of an Independence Day cookout has risen to a 10-year high of $7.38 per person, but remains the cheapest in this period after adjusting for inflation.
The American Farm Bureau Federation estimates that feeding 10 people meat and potatoes on America’s 250th birthday will cost $73.82, up 4% or $2.90 from last year before inflation. That’s just below the 4.2% inflation rate for the 12 months ended in May, including a 3.1% rise in food prices.
The farmers’ advocacy group found that unadjusted prices rose between 1.7% and 13.8% from last year for cheese, lemonade, strawberries, ground beef, hamburger buns, pork chops, chicken breasts, ice cream, homemade potato salad, chocolate chip cookies, and pork and beans.
On the positive side, unadjusted prices dipped by 0.8% to $4.76 for the average 16-ounce bag of potato chips. They also plunged 17.8% to $2.91 for the average 2 1/2-pound tub of homemade potato salad.
“Farmers are dealing with natural disasters and higher supply costs while making the same — or sometimes less — money for the food they grow,” said Zippy Duvall, the organization’s president.
However, the Farm Bureau noted that the cookout adjusted for inflation will cost $22.03 in real dollars. That’s down from 2022, when record-high inflation jacked up expenses to $23.84, the highest since the bureau first surveyed the issue in 2016.
It’s also the cheapest a July Fourth cookout for 10 people has been in the survey period, besting the previous inflation-adjusted low of $22.06 set last year.
Farm Bureau economist Faith Parum said these numbers show how the purchasing power of the dollar “has remained relatively stable when it comes to food,” even as grocery prices rise.
“America’s families spend less of their disposable income on food than most other nations, and we enjoy one of the most abundant, affordable and safe food supplies in the world,” Ms. Parum said.
Several economists not involved in the survey echoed her sentiments in interviews with The Washington Times.
“Measured against everything else a dollar buys, it’s one of the cheapest [cookouts] in years, because grocery prices for once rose a hair slower than the cost of living,” said Siri Terjesen, an associate business school dean at Florida Atlantic University. “The 2022 reading was the high-water mark of post-pandemic food inflation, and the real cost has drifted down since then.”
Michael Austin, a former economic adviser to two Republican governors in Kansas, noted that a “perfect storm” of pandemic-era price shocks hit Independence Day cookouts in 2022.
He cited war, avian flu, energy shocks and supply-chain breakdowns as factors driving up food prices when annualized inflation hit 9.1% in June 2022.
“The lesson is not that food is cheap,” said Mr. Austin, an economist at the conservative National Center for Public Policy Research’s Project 21. “It is that abundance still works. America’s food system has taken repeated blows and kept feeding the country better than almost anywhere else.”
Other experts warn against concluding that Fourth of July food costs will burden families less than last year.
Some cite Bureau of Labor Statistics data showing that average hourly wages rose by 3.3% from May 2025 to May 2026, less than the 4% rise in cookout prices the bureau tracked.
“If we were to deflate by wages, we would see that the cost of the cookout has increased somewhat, almost certainly driven by the recent strong inflation we have seen for meats and vegetables,” said Ricky Volpe, an agricultural economist at California Polytechnic State University.
Angelica Gianchandani, a New York University marketing instructor, stressed that Americans rarely calculate real-dollar savings at the cash register.
“People walk into the store for a few basics and leave surprised by the total,” Ms. Gianchandani said. “The psychological impact of inflation often lingers longer than the economic data.”
The White House countered that President Trump’s “supply-side policies” have limited price increases for beef, poultry, egg and dairy products the past year.
“With wages continuing to grow, Americans are set to see more economic relief in the months ahead,” White House spokesman Kush Desai told The Times on Friday.
Ups and downs
The Farm Bureau blamed “years of severe drought” for trimming cattle herds and driving up the retail price for two pounds of ground beef, which rose 5.5% from last year to $14.06.
“It will take several years for herds to recover to pre-drought levels,” the group noted in a summary.
The bureau also flagged high labor costs for picking fruits and vegetables, plus high fuel costs for transporting and refrigerating food.
On the sunnier side, it noted that egg prices have dropped as flocks of hens recover from avian influenza, lowering the cost of making potato salad. The bureau also credited “healthy potato harvests” for chip prices falling 5 cents from last year to $4.76.
Farm Bureau members and volunteers collect price data from stores in every state and Puerto Rico to construct the annual cost estimate for Independence Day food.
Peter Earle, senior director of research at the free-market American Institute for Economic Research, urged consumers not to overreact to the higher cost of certain food this month.
“Consumers naturally focus on sticker prices at the grocery store, but a more meaningful measure is how much of household income is required to purchase food,” Mr. Earle said. “By that standard, the United States continues to enjoy one of the most affordable and abundant food supplies in the world.”
