OTTAWA — Prime Minister Mark Carney is heading to a summit of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in Turkey this week with a message that Canada is now pulling its weight in the alliance and ready to do what it takes to get to its ambitious spending target set for 2035.
But Canada’s increased defence spending will without a doubt be overshadowed by U.S. President Donald Trump’s musings in Ankara, whether they are about Iran, Greenland, or leaving NATO altogether.
“I think this might be the tensest summit yet,” said Stephen Saideman, head of the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs at Carleton University.
“On the one hand, (Trump) expects NATO to jump and dance whenever he demands. On another hand, NATO countries paid a real price for this failed war in Iran,” he said.
Trump has consistently threatened to pull out of NATO since his return to office, with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte resorting to flattery to convince him to stay in the alliance.
Rutte has referred to Trump as “daddy,” though he has said stemmed from an awkward translation.
Lately, the NATO chief has attempted to woo the president with the “Trump trillion.” In Washington, Rutte pulled out a chart showing that Europe and Canada have added more than a trillion dollars in defence spending since Trump first came into office in 2017.
Robert Baines, President and CEO of the NATO Association of Canada, said he expects a repeat of Rutte’s “teacher moment” during this summit to “appease” the U.S. President.
“I think the only challenge is going to be making sure the Secretary-General doesn’t bend over too far backwards,” Baines said, adding that the “daddy” comment and the constant appeasement to satisfy Trump have left a “bad taste” in some people’s mouths.
Trump came out swinging again against the alliance just last week, writing on Truth Social that it is “ridiculous” that the U.S. is spending more money on NATO than any other country, by far. He has also complained allies have not helped him in the war in Iran.
Trump has not abandoned either his idea of taking over Greenland, a prospect that is bound to increase tension among European allies. One of Trump’s allies, Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry, said the president was still mulling over that idea just days ago.
Saideman said NATO’s goal is to make sure the alliance survives the week. Canada’s will be to avoid being targeted with insults.
Notably, Trump has not singled out Canada over its defence spending in the lead-up to this year’s meeting with NATO allies, although he has done so in the past.
Canada announced earlier this year it had achieved NATO’s two per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) defence spending commitment after reclassifying the Canadian Coast Guard’s budget as national defence and giving a substantial pay raise to military personnel.
Thanks to billions of investments in infrastructure such as ports and air bases and major procurement decisions, including new submarines, Carney recently said the country is on track to meet NATO’s next commitment of spending five per cent of GDP on defence by 2035.
A senior government official, speaking at a not-for-attribution technical briefing, said Canada has “an extremely positive narrative” heading into the NATO summit because of “generational investments” that have been made in defence in the past year.
Rutte has also taken note of Canada’s efforts, recently praising the country and some of its European allies for “really stepping up with record increases.” But he warned that all NATO members need to turn that extra cash into combat-ready capabilities — and fast.
“This is our shared priority for the Ankara summit and the years ahead,” the NATO chief said during a press conference last month.
“We need more forces, we need more resources, and a strong industrial base.”
On Tuesday in Ankara, Carney plans to participate in a discussion at the NATO Defence Industry Forum, where he will be outlining “Canadian leadership in defence financing and innovation to meet allied needs,” according to a senior government official.
On Wednesday, he plans to take part in the meeting of the North Atlantic Council — the tradition cornerstone session of the summit — with all 32 allies present. They will be presenting their plans to turn their commitments into tangible military capabilities.
Christopher Coates, director of foreign policy and security issues at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, said that while Canada intentions look good, the country will not be delivering concrete, combat-ready capabilities for many years still.
The over-the-horizon radar system that Canada just bought from Australia is expected to be operational by 2029. And equipment such as submarines and aircraft will take many more years to build and become available to NATO allies.
“I realize it’s not immediate. I get that,” Coates said. “But the method that the government’s chose to pursue defense modernization still remains somewhat bureaucratic… with pretty long timelines before we see any real capability delivered.”
During the summit, Carney is also expected to offer an update on the planned Defence, Security and Resilience Bank for NATO members which is set to have its headquarters in Canada. And he will be reaffirming Canada’s continued support to Ukraine in the face of Russia.
Although Carney will be holding some bilateral meetings during the summit, it is unclear if he will be meeting with Trump, or as recently happened at the G7, speak with him briefly on the sidelines.
A hot mic moment at that meeting caught Carney talking to Trump about the federal government’s decision to allow a limited number of Chinese electric vehicles into Canada, with the prime minister telling the president, “I thought you’d actually like that.”
Trump then replied, “that’s good, I like it.”
National Post
calevesque@postmedia.com
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