World Cup Final Best Bets: Three Picks for Argentina vs. Spain

The World Cup final is here, with a matchup between Argentina and Spain that should have the football world salivating.

Spain are the reigning European Champions. Argentina, the defending World Cup champions and two-time reigning Copa America holders.

Here are our three best bets for the encounter in East Rutherford, N.J.

Moneyline

You won’t find many sportsbooks offering the money line draw at a price north of +200 odds. And while that may seem steep, both history and circumstances suggest that’s the value play.

Over the entire course of World Cup history, 8 of 21 true finals have ended level after 90 minutes. And that includes a previous, much-higher-scoring era of the sport that lasted through the late 1950s.

Since goals per game came down in the 1960s, that ratio has increased to 7 of 16 finals.

And the relative ease of Spain’s semifinal victory, combined with the drama of Argentina’s fightback a day later, has obscured the fact that these sides are pretty even analytically.

Spain holds the highest expected-goal difference of the tournament at 11.2, but Argentina is second at 10.4.

Given the finals trend, that’s enough evidence to back the 90-minute draw trend here at +210 odds and an implied 32.3% probability.

Moneyline: Draw (+210, theScore)

Goal bands

The trend for total goals in World Cup finals is not particularly clear. But there is a pretty consistent trend for both these sides over 90 minutes in knockout play.

Both Spain and Argentina are teams that aspire to be ball dominant. It’s a style that rarely leads to 0-0 draws, but also rarely leads to super high-scoring encounters.

In 90 minutes, each of these sides have seen the total land on 2 or 3 goals in three of their four knockout round fixtures. That was also true in three of Spain’s four fixtures at the 2024 European Championships and two of Argentina’s three knockout matches at the 2024 Copa America.

Maybe it won’t happen here. But at +100 odds and an implied 50% probability, you like betting on those chances.

Goal band: 2 or 3 total goals (+100, DraftKings)

To lift the trophy

The oddsmakers are giving a slight edge to Spain here, which is probably reflective of their slight expected-goal superiority and maybe their perceived more difficult tournament path.

But the gap between these sides is small enough that matter, and those favor the Argentines.

For starters, Argentine fans have relentlessly followed this team across the United States, creating cauldrons of support that sound like home stadiums. Crowds aren’t the only factor that creates a quantifiable home-field edge, but they are part of it.

Argentina also have the experience of playing at this stage in the previous World Cup. Spain have also played in big matches, but World Cups are different. If you were going to nitpick their run so far, you might point out that they haven’t played against anyone from beyond the European continent in the knockout stage.

Lastly, the Argentine mindset here is a dangerous combination of unified but not overly pressured. The Albiceleste very much want to send out their greatest player on a high, and there is no debate about their national identity. But they are not under the same burden as four years ago when they were trying to prove Messi’s greatness and end a 36-year drought.

Spain have always had a more complicated relationship with their national squad, in part because of Basque and Catalan separatist sentiments.

These don’t transform a 75-25 game. But they can swing a 58-42 encounter to a true coinflip. I believe that’s the case here, and that’s why I’m betting on Argentina to lift the trophy at +130 odds and an implied 43.5% probability.

To lift the trophy: Argentina (+130, DraftKings)