American democracy works best when elections produce meaningful accountability. In the United States, voters have often used the midterm elections to balance power in Washington and impose oversight and accountability on the sitting president and his party. This occurs when the electorate gives majority control of the U.S. House of Representatives or Senate to the party other than the president’s party. Recent midterm flips occurred in 2006, 2010, 2018, and 2022, four of the last five midterms.
The House, and possibly the Senate, may once again change hands following this year’s midterms in November. Polls show Democrats with an advantage in winning the House this fall as Republicans are weighed down with President Donald Trump’s low approval rating and voter concerns about high costs of living and overall inflation. The Senate map remains structurally more favorable to Republicans, but several races have become increasingly competitive, giving Democrats a potential path to gains if the current political environment persists.
While Democrats would be limited given that President Trump remains in the White House and dominates his party, a Democratic Congress would significantly increase oversight of the executive branch. If Democrats win the House, Democratic leadership of House committees would lead to aggressive accountability — among the U.S. Constitution’s primary checks on presidential powers.
Democrats have been clear about their intentions. Currently in the minority in both the House and Senate, Democratic staff on key committees, including Oversight and Government Reform, Judiciary, Financial Services, Energy and Commerce Committees, have been actively building investigative records and preparing requests they are ready to turn into formal subpoenas on Day One of the new Congress should Democrats take control. Committee chairs, pursuant to House and Senate rules, set the agenda and hearing schedule, have subpoena power, and can compel the production of documents, take depositions, and gather public testimony. They also can pursue contempt proceedings and refer matters to the Department of Justice. In anticipation of possible future investigations, several ranking Democrats have already begun sending document-preservation letters to government agencies, corporations, and other entities that could become subjects of congressional scrutiny. As importantly, the committees’ work can generate significant public attention.
Affordability will likely be a guiding principle for many policy proposals and committee work, with a strong focus on pricing issues surrounding healthcare, housing and energy. Democrats are also likely to push for legislation on climate change, labor protections and voting rights. We also expect scrutiny of regulatory rollbacks in the AI, finance, cryptocurrency and environmental sectors. We expect inquiries of federal agencies about how they have implemented laws, expended taxpayer funds, and complied with ethics and transparency requirements. We will likely see investigations into the federal government’s personnel actions and scrutiny into decisions involving the selection of government contractors for major White House priorities. A Democratic Congress also would scrutinize immigration enforcement policies and U.S. foreign policy decisions, especially in light of high-profile cases including the killings of U.S. citizens and immigrants by federal agents, and the ongoing war with Iran and the overall conflict in the Middle East.
During the first Trump administration, executive branch agencies and officials routinely ignored requests from Congress and refused to cooperate with Congressional inquiries, hindering oversight and accountability. Given the aggressive manner by which members of the Trump administration have responded to recent inquiries by Congress, we expect this same positioning by this Administration in the 120th Congress.
Congressional oversight is likely to extend beyond federal agencies and increasingly focus on private-sector actors whose operations, business practices, or public positions intersect with Democratic policy priorities. Because private parties are often more responsive to congressional inquiries than Executive Branch agencies during this Administration, lawmakers may view the private sector as a particularly effective vehicle for advancing oversight objectives. Through subpoena authority, investigative hearings, and sustained public attention, congressional committees can subject companies to significant legal, operational, and reputational pressures. Businesses operating in sectors such as national security, technology, healthcare, labor and workforce policy, and consumer affordability should therefore evaluate their potential exposure to congressional scrutiny and prepare accordingly.
Democrats are expected to use oversight efforts not only to investigate administration policies and private-sector conduct, but also to advance legislative proposals and broader policy objectives. As a result, we expect a highly contentious legislative environment, particularly around efforts to reassert Democratic prerogatives and shape the policy debate heading into the 2028 elections. With President Trump constitutionally barred from seeking another term, Democrats are likely to use the next Congress to develop and test policy proposals that could form the foundation of a future presidential platform. Individual lawmakers will also seek to establish themselves as leading voices on key issues as the party positions itself to regain control of the White House and Congress in 2028.
Overall, a Democratic takeover of Congress would strengthen — not weaken — American democracy. Divided or changing control of government reinforces a basic democratic principle: no political party should assume it has a permanent claim to power. The 120th Congress will likely prove to be a very dynamic and consequential one.
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