The Cardinals kicked off a youth movement — and the significant payroll cut that comes with it — with a series of trades last offseason. They’re nevertheless right in the thick of the Wild Card race, perhaps as much a surprise to their front office as it is to most outside observers. President of baseball operations Chaim Bloom has made clear they’re not going to deviate too much from their long-term vision, but that still leaves questions about how to navigate the line between being soft buyers or sellers.
St. Louis blew a ninth-inning lead to drop last night’s series opener at Angel Stadium. They’ll play the Halos twice more before a one-off makeup game at Busch Stadium against the Diamondbacks. The Reds are in town this weekend for a three-game set, then they’ll play series against the Cubs and Blue Jays up to the deadline. It should be a manageable slate for the Cardinals to remain in the Wild Card picture on August 3. Despite dropping three in a row, they’re in possession of the NL’s last playoff spot right now but with five teams hanging less than three games behind them.
That’ll likely lead the Cardinals to walk both sides of the line. They have a couple veteran assets whom they can cash in for future value without feeling like they’re abandoning hope of contending in 2026.
Record: 51-48 (24.4% playoff odds, per FanGraphs)
For other entries in this series, check out this post.
Sell Mode
Impending Free Agents: Dustin May, JoJo Romero, Ramón Urías
St. Louis only has three impending free agents, though they’d have a fourth if they decline their $6MM option on setup man Ryne Stanek. They’re not getting anything for Urías, who has missed most of the season with tennis elbow.
Romero is having a decent season, posting a 3.35 ERA with league average strikeout and walk rates while recording 21 holds. He’s getting swinging strikes at a career-low 8% rate, however, and he just landed on the injured list after requiring treatment for appendicitis. He’s playing on a $4.26MM salary that is about right for a reliever like this. The Cardinals could land a middling prospect for him, but that return probably isn’t enough to subtract one of the most established arms in a weak bullpen.
May is their biggest rental trade candidate. He’s making a $12MM salary and will collect a $500K buyout on a mutual option at the end of the year. The Cardinals could make him a qualifying offer in the $23MM range, but that’s rich for a pitcher of his caliber. May looked like the team’s best starter for a couple months. He hasn’t completed six innings in an appearance since throwing a one-hit shutout against San Diego on June 15.
The sinkerballer is up to a 4.78 earned run average across 98 innings. His slightly above-average strikeout and walk profile and a 97 mph fastball are more appealing. Other teams probably view May as having more upside than a run of the mill fifth starter. Still, he’s not going to be anyone’s top target, and the Cardinals will be looking a couple mid-tier prospects if they move him.
Controllable Trade Candidates: Lars Nootbaar, Nolan Gorman, Riley O’Brien, Ryne Stanek, Andre Pallante, catching depth (e.g. Jimmy Crooks, Leo Bernal)
Nootbaar is the biggest piece of this group, which otherwise is a mishmash of cheap but flawed role players. St. Louis probably would’ve traded their left fielder last offseason had he not required surgery to address Haglund’s deformities (bone growths on the back of the heel) in both feet. Nootbaar was down to two years of arbitration control, the same contractual window as Brendan Donovan was in when the Cards traded him.
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