New research has revealed that tourists are 15 percent less likely to return to Spain if they’ve experienced abnormally hot weather while on vacation.
Extreme heat is already causing many issues across Spain, from severe wildfires to related health problems and challenges for those working outdoors, but recent evidence suggests it could be affecting Spain’s famed tourist industry now too.
For several years now, many places in Spain have been suffering from overtourism, with some locals calling for holidaymakers to reconsider visiting the most crowded destinations.
Aside from tourism protests and rising prices, there’s increasing evidence that there’s another major factor putting off tourists from ever returning to Spain – the intense summer heat.
A recent analysis by CaixaBank Research reveals that extreme temperatures are having an increasingly negative impact on international tourism in Spain.
It showed that tourists who endure abnormally hot holidays are about 15 percent less likely to return to Spain than those who experienced normal weather conditions.
This means Spain loses approximately one in six tourists after extremely hot weather.
It also shows that tourists who do decide to return typically try and come in different seasons or select destinations with cooler temperatures.
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The more that visitors experienced temperatures above 32C during their stay, the more likely they are to choose a destination and dates on their next trip where the average temperature is at least five degrees lower.
It doesn’t always mean that people will change their favoured destinations completely though.
The Mediterranean coast has long been a popular holiday destination and accounts for nearly two-thirds of international arrivals.
A total 85.2 percent of repeat visitors chose a Mediterranean destination again. Only 1.8 percent opted to switch to the Atlantic coast in areas such as Galicia.
What does change, however, is that they might switch to a Mediterranean town at higher altitude so it’s slightly cooler or travel a different region that doesn’t suffer so much from extremely high temperatures.
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The research is based on anonymous data from payments made with foreign cards and supplemented with climate information.
According to experts at CaixaBank Research, these results confirm that “climate change not only represents an environmental challenge, but also a competitive advantage for the Spanish tourism sector”.
Most studies on climate change and tourism had previously focused on how high temperatures affected visitor spending or shifted demand toward cooler destinations.
This now looks into repeat visitors in a country where tourism generates nearly 13 percent of GDP and employment.
This means that losing repeat visitors could be far more costly here.
Caixa Bank warn that “the loss of customer loyalty associated with heat waves could have a long-term impact on one of the main drivers of the Spanish economy, which has registered record levels in recent years”.
This isn’t the first time that Caixa Bank has carried out these types of studies. Back at the beginning of 2024, the bank also concluded that extreme heat is having an impact on the way tourists in Spain behave after the hottest year on record in Spain in 2023.
Caixabank Research’s found that tourists spent less, chose other destinations or chose to travel in different seasons or to different places in Spain.
It pointed out a the time the number of holidaymakers who were opting to visit the cooler, green and wetter northern coast of Spain were increasing, and visitor numbers seem to be confirming this.
From 2019 to 2023, the number of tourists visiting Green Spain increased by 4 million, according to the Spanish Tourist Office.
Last year in 2025, Asturias saw an 11.86 percent increase in tourists compared to the previous year, while Galicia saw an increase of 3.2 percent with over 8 million now visiting the northwestern region.
