Royce Lewis had a two-run double with two outs in the ninth to walk off the Royals tonight. The victory brought the Twins back to .500 and within a half-game of the Guardians for the AL’s last Wild Card spot. They’re in third place in the AL Central and just 2.5 back of the White Sox.
It’s a big victory for a clubhouse that should get a boost in the next five days. The Twins’ surprisingly competitive season has positioned them to add before next Monday’s trade deadline. General manager Jeremy Zoll told reporters this evening that the front office is approaching the deadline as buyers (links via Matthew Leach of MLB.com and Dan Hayes of The Athletic). Bolstering one of the league’s worst bullpens is an unsurprising priority.
“This has been what we were focusing on and what our pro personnel group over the last couple of months has been focused on — the ‘buy’ version of things,” Zoll said. “It wasn’t some situation where they were prepping to sell and we’re switching. Now we’re looking forward to try and execute on that work.”
That may well take two of the game’s top trade chips off the market. Ryan Jeffers is the best impending free agent catcher and has gotten attention from the Rays and Yankees (surely among other clubs). Joe Ryan would’ve been one of the marquee targets for teams seeking starting pitching as a #2 caliber starter with an extra season of arbitration control.
Zoll’s declaration makes it highly unlikely the Twins will listen on Ryan, who’d essentially be irreplaceable as the team’s best pitcher. There’d still be an argument for listening on Jeffers in a deal that nets big league pitching, as Minnesota has a capable backup catcher in Victor Caratini. Zoll declined to speak in absolutes about any individual player — aside from last month’s declaration that Byron Buxton wasn’t going anywhere — but made it fairly clear they weren’t looking to move Jeffers.
“What I’ll say is on Ryan specifically, he’s had an awesome year,” Zoll said of his starting catcher. “We’re really excited about where he’s at, and looking forward to doing everything we can to keep the group together and put us in the best spot to keep pushing ahead.”
That would further thin a dwindling catching market that already lost Shea Langeliers to meniscus surgery. Adley Rutschman, Hunter Goodman and Francisco Alvarez are long shots to move. Cincinnati’s Tyler Stephenson probably jumps to the top of the rental market if the Twins shut down talks on Jeffers. They would need to weigh whether to issue him a qualifying offer in the $23MM range at season’s end.
Minnesota may still deal from the big league roster if it’s a baseball trade, presumably for pitching help. They have a surplus in left-handed hitting outfielders that may yet make left fielder Trevor Larnach available. The former first-round pick has had a strong season in a platoon role, batting .313/.398/.475 against right-handed pitching. He’s playing on a $4.475MM salary and eligible for arbitration one more time.
The Twins have 26-year-old Alan Roden, acquired last summer as part of the Louis Varland trade, on the big league bench. Roden hasn’t hit much in limited MLB time but has pummeled Triple-A pitching. Prospects Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez and Hendry Mendez have all performed well in Triple-A. (Rodriguez has been out since early May and is just working back from injury.) Matt Wallner has also destroyed minor league pitching since being optioned in May and could be flipped for a mid-level prospect.
Minnesota has a strong farm system, so perhaps they’ll preserve their outfield depth and leverage the minor league pipeline for bullpen help. They’ll need multiple late-game pieces. Twins relievers entered play Tuesday with a 5.03 earned run average, the third-highest mark in MLB. They’re 25th in strikeout rate and have the second-worst walk percentage. They’ve pitched better over the past month, to their credit, but they’re still relying mostly on unproven arms.
Journeyman Yoendrys Gómez, acquired in a DFA trade with the Rays in early May, has fired 30 1/3 frames of 1.78 ERA ball to take the closer role in the Twin Cities. Rookie righty Andrew Morris has turned in a 3.24 ERA with a 24.1% strikeout rate in his first 50 big league innings. They’re the two most reliable arms for first-year skipper Derek Shelton. The left-handed duo of Taylor Rogers and Kody Funderburk has been shaky overall. Minnesota already swung a deal to acquire Tommy Nance from Toronto. He should be in middle relief.
While the bullpen is the priority, the Twins could also look for a rotation upgrade over Zebby Matthews and/or help at the bottom of the order. They’re getting nothing offensively from Ryan Kreidler this month, though they could bring up highly regarded prospect Kaelen Culpepper from Triple-A rather than trade for a shortstop.
Third baseman Brooks Lee has been serviceable but unspectacular. Minnesota has generally struggled versus left-handed pitching and could look for a complementary righty bat. Those are in short supply this summer, but a utility piece like Nick Loftin or José Fermín could work as a depth addition.
The Twins are spending around $101MM, as shown on MLBTR’s new payroll tracker. It’s a $30MM cut from where they ended last year. Minnesota hasn’t shown much of an appetite for spending but resisted an offseason teardown after bringing in some minority investors and turning control of the franchise over to Tom Pohlad.
