Photo courtesy: Brody Cameron/B.C. Lions
Week 11 in the CFL, here we come!
If you don’t like underdogs, these picks might not be for you. The CFL betting market continues to overrate and overinflate some lines, which gives us no choice but to take these live dogs to hang around and potentially win outright.
Last week, we went 2-0, cashing in with Chad Kelly’s passing yards prop and Hamilton plus the points. This week’s column features two underdogs that hold a ton of value.
Eligible sports bettors in Ontario and Alberta can find relevant information for wagering on the games by clicking on their respective jurisdiction. Please bet responsibly.
BC Lions @ Calgary Stampeders
Fading a team one week and backing them the next is not uncommon in the CFL betting landscape, and that’s exactly what we have here with the BC Lions.
We faded the Lions last week because the market treated Nathan Rourke’s return like a light switch was going to change everything overnight. BC opened as a 4.5-point favourite and closed as high as -9.5 at some sportsbooks, which was a massive overreaction. Many expected the reigning M.O.P. to step out of the training room and immediately look like the same all-star quarterback we’ve seen before, but it takes time to get back to that level.
We know what Rourke is capable of as he threw for 5,290 yards and 31 touchdowns last season. Last week wasn’t the time to back him, especially at that number. This week is a completely different story. After laying points last week, the Lions are now catching 4.5 points, something we haven’t seen much throughout Rourke’s CFL career.
We talk about selling high and buying low all the time in sports betting, and I think that applies perfectly to both teams in this matchup. Give Calgary credit, especially on offence. Vernon Adams Jr. has been excellent, leading the CFL with 21 touchdown passes, while the Stampeders have scored at least 30 points in eight straight games. I’m not interested in telling you Calgary is a bad football team, but I’m also not convinced a 4-5 team deserves to be laying 4.5 points against a Lions team that is getting healthier and has its starting quarterback back.
Just look at what Calgary was handed in Toronto last week. The Stampeders forced five turnovers, scored on a 67-yard interception return and recovered another fumble at the Argos’ three-yard line. That’s five extra possessions, a defensive touchdown and another possession starting on the doorstep, yet Calgary still lost 33-30. The Stamps finished with 249 yards of offence, while Adams completed 12-of-24 passes for 159 yards with two interceptions. That’s about as favourable of a turnover script as a team could ask for, and it still wasn’t enough.
Kaidon Salter did a respectable job for the Lions, but getting Rourke back is obviously a massive upgrade. It’s not just the quarterback situation that’s improving for BC either. The Lions have dealt with major depth issues throughout the season, but they’re starting to get healthier at the right time. Last week, Rourke was thrown into a completely different betting role as a massive favourite. This week, we’re getting 4.5 points with him on the road against a Calgary defence that allows the second-most points per game and second-most passing yards per game. That’s a much more attractive situation, especially when you consider how much the market has already adjusted from last week’s number.
The weather expected in Calgary Thursday night could also play right into our hands. If conditions slow this game down, having 4.5 points becomes even more valuable. I’m not expecting BC to need 35 or 40 points to cover this number. We just need Rourke to look comfortable enough, the healthier Lions offence to move the ball, and BC’s defence to keep this within one score.
The market has gone from making us lay 4.5 points with Rourke to giving us 4.5 points with him in the span of one week. I think that’s an overcorrection. We likely won’t get many more opportunities to back Rourke as a 4.5-point underdog, so I’ll gladly take the value with the Lions.
Pick: BC +4.5
Toronto Argonauts @ Edmonton Elks
Remember when I said this week features underrated and undervalued teams? Well, Toronto has to be at the top of that category. Across most sportsbooks, the Argos currently sit around +820 to win the Grey Cup, presenting some of the most value on the board.
Look, I get it. The Argos aren’t liked. They don’t get as much coverage or hype as some of the other teams in the CFL, but this is a team more than capable of stacking wins together and putting on a show in the process. Now we’re getting more than a field goal with them against Edmonton, and I think that’s a number we need to take advantage of.
Last week, Chad Kelly was responsible for four interceptions, but he also completed 30-of-43 passes for 349 yards and helped Toronto come away with a win. Despite struggling, especially early in the game, Kelly made it clear that he isn’t going to let mistakes deter him from making big plays.
“If I’m not aggressive, then they might start calling me ‘Checkdown Charlie.’ That’s not how I play the game.” said Kelly.
That’s a quote you love to hear when backing a quarterback. Even in one of his worst performances of the season when it came to limiting mistakes, Kelly never hesitated to try and make big plays. Last week featured a great performance from Damonte Coxie, who caught eight passes for a season-high 161 yards, while Samuel Hicks bounced back from a tough start to score twice, including a 40-yard go-ahead run in the fourth quarter. Janarion Grant added a 64-yard punt return, proving how well-rounded this team can be and that Toronto can hurt you in all areas.
Let’s look at the gap between these teams by diving into the numbers. Point differential favours Edmonton slightly, but net offence per game favours Toronto, as does offensive yards per play. One number that really stands out to me is red-zone touchdown rate, where Toronto has a significant advantage at 60.6 percent compared to Edmonton’s 51.4 percent. The records tell us Edmonton is 6-3 and Toronto is 4-4, but I don’t think the gap between these teams is nearly as big as the standings suggest.
I have respect for Edmonton, but somehow we’ve fallen into a year of the Elks being overvalued. Who saw that coming? Ultimately, their defence is slipping, and I’m not just saying that because of last week’s game against Montreal. Edmonton has been playing a ton of close games, with tight matchups against Saskatchewan twice, B.C. twice and Winnipeg as well. This is a team that got hot while playing great football, but now they’re facing another strong opponent and, more importantly, they’re not just being asked to win — they’re being asked to win by more than a field goal.
The Argos are undervalued, and I think we’re getting a great number on them this week. Kelly threw four interceptions last week and Toronto still found a way to win. I expect a much cleaner performance from him this week, and with Toronto getting 3.5 points, I’ll gladly back the Argos to take down this year’s surprise team in the West.
Pick: Toronto +3.5
Eligible sports bettors in Ontario and Alberta can find relevant information for wagering on the games by clicking on their respective jurisdiction. Please bet responsibly.
