3DownNation CFL best bets: Week 12

Photo courtesy: Edmonton Elks.

It’s Week 12 in the Canadian Football League, and this week there are three plays from two games that we’re going to look at.

I had a good bounce-back last week, going 3-0, so let’s keep the ball rolling this week.

Ottawa Redblacks at Montreal Alouettes — Thursday, August 20 at 7:30 p.m. EDT

The Alouettes enter this game as one of the biggest favourites of the season at -12.5 points.

I believe Montreal will win this one pretty convincingly, but I don’t like to make a habit of giving out double-digit favourites as a best bet. With this in mind, we’ll focus on one of the reasons why I believe the Alouettes should win this one in dominant fashion.

Tyson Philpot has been incredible this season, including two standout performances against Ottawa this year.

Back in Week 9, Philpot had nine receptions on 11 targets for 184 yards against this Ottawa defence. Somehow, that was actually a step back from what he did to Ottawa in Week 4 when he had 198 yards on 12 receptions.

I feel pretty good about calling this a plus matchup for Philpot and the Als.

His receiving yards total is 94.5, a mark that he has only gone under three times this year. In one of those games, we had an over play on him and he missed it by a yard, but we won’t focus too much on that.

This Ottawa defence has allowed nine different receivers to get over that 94.5 mark this year, and two others had 94 exactly.

This is a matchup that Montreal has consistently exploited, and I don’t see why that would change this week.

Pick: Tyson Philpot Over 94.5

Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Edmonton Elks — Friday, August 21 at 9:30 p.m. EDT

There are a lot of positive headlines around this Edmonton team right now, while I’m not confident that all of Winnipeg’s problems are solved after beating Ottawa last week.

The biggest matchup to watch in this one is the running game. Justin Rankin’s rushing numbers have cooled as of late, but this is a matchup that could boost those numbers back to M.O.P. levels from the beginning of the year.

Rankin hasn’t had more than 65 yards on the ground since Week 6, which was against Ottawa, so that barely counts. However, in that stretch, he’s had to face Montreal as well as a pair of matchups with Saskatchewan, so it hasn’t been the easiest slate. That could change this week.

Winnipeg has the league’s worst rushing defence this year. They’ve given up 6.2 yards per carry and 128 yards per game, which is 11 yards per game more than anyone else.

When Rankin last faced Winnipeg back in Week 4, he torched them for 106 yards on 15 carries.

His total this week is 77.5, so he does have to pick it up from his recent pace. But this Winnipeg team has been a nice boost for a lot of running backs this year, and I expect that to continue this week as the Elks continue to build their momentum.

Picks: Edmonton -5.5, Justin Rankin Over 77.5 rushing yards

Peter Klein is a Saskatchewan-born, Calgary-based CFL analyst. He is a lifelong fan who has been covering the league across multiple platforms for the last 17 years.