Adam Chernoff’s CFL picks: B.C. Lions outperforming expectations with Nathan Rourke back

Photo courtesy: Steven Chang/B.C. Lions

It’s a short one-and-done card for me this week.

B.C. Lions -120 versus Saskatchewan Roughriders

Yards per play is the strongest indicator of team success in football. There is a direct correlation over time of net yards per play and margin of victory. Every yard per play better a team is in the CFL typically equates to six points margin of victory.

As a bettor, I am constantly looking at teams over or under performing expectation. B.C. with Nathan Rourke back is a terrific example of a team playing better than their results suggest.

In Week 10, Rourke led the Lions to a 27-24 victory over Hamilton, but the box score showed the Lions were 1.8 yards per play better. The market also validated the Lions just before kickoff, seeing them bet up from -7.5 to -9.5.

There was a bit of a freak sequence in the fourth quarter.

Up seven and in Hamilton territory driving for the cover, Rourke threw a pass that bounced off the hands of Justin McInnis and was intercepted.

Two plays later, Hamilton connected on a 46-yard pass — 22 percent of their total offence on the day — and scored to tie. The Lions dominated the game, but little missteps prevented them from winning by double digits.

In Week 11, Rourke led the Lions to a 30-26 victory over Calgary.

The Lions posted a ridiculous 9.3 yards per play mark on the day, and out-gained Calgary by four yards per play. This would typically equate to a team winning by more than three scores.

Instead, it was down to the wire. Two fumbles and a pick deep inside Calgary territory interrupted what was otherwise a dominate wire-to-wire performance for a second week in a row.

It is fair to ask if this is an issue with the team. I don’t believe the answer is yes.

Fumbles are the most random stat in football, and the interceptions were part fluke and part communication error, something that can be equated to Rourke missing time, and so many Lions receivers being hurt. This team is finally playing with its best pieces together and the results are showing in a big way on the stat sheet. It’s all here to click.

In their last six games, the Riders defence has had the benefit of playing the Redblacks twice and two backup quarterbacks for Hamilton, making their side of the ball look better than reality.

In the two games against Edmonton in-between, they conceded more than 900 yards and 8.5 yards per play. Even with Samuel Emilus back this week, the offence is down key guys for this likely shootout.

Not needing to lay points eliminates the hyper conservative play-calling of Buck Pierce limiting this Lions team.

I see a big home win for B.C. ahead this weekend.

Season record: 14-7 (+6.65x)

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Adam Chernoff has been betting on sports and bookmaking for the past 17 years. While he is known across the industry for NFL expertise, he bets on CFL from his home in Saskatoon during the summer.