AbbVie Inc. forecast 2026 profits above Wall Street’s expectations, though investors saw vulnerabilities in some of the company’s key brands.
Adjusted earnings for the year will be $14.37 to $14.57 a share, AbbVie reported Wednesday. Analysts’ average estimate was for $14.22.
Fourth quarter sales were $16.6 billion, topping forecasts for $16.4 billion, as the company delivered what Chief Executive Officer Rob Michael called “record net sales” for 2025. Quarterly adjusted earnings were $2.71 a share, compared with the average analyst estimate of $2.65 per share.
BMO Markets analyst Evan Seigerman wrote in a note that investors might see AbbVie’s results as “somewhat lower quality” as it was driven by a Humira beat, which continues to erode. He added that while aesthetics showed signs of improvement, “filler softness” remains a challenge.
William Blair analyst Matt Phipps wrote that this was the “second quarter in a row where Rinvoq has not beat consensus and Skyrizi has only had a slight beat.”
Shares dropped 6.9 percent on Feb. 4 in New York. The North Chicago, Illinois-based drugmaker’s stock had fallen 1.2 percent this year through Tuesday’s close.
Aesthetics showed signs of recovery in the fourth quarter, with Botox sales of $717 million beating the average analyst estimate of $683.9 million, despite a miss for Juvéderm. In the neuroscience portfolio, sales of schizophrenia drug Vraylar were over $1 billion, topping expectations of $985.3 million.
For AbbVie, 2025 marked the second full year since it lost market exclusivity on its arthritis drug Humira — once the world’s top-selling medication. Yet its quarterly sales of $1.2 billion still surpassed analysts’ expectations for $993.8 million.
The company has navigated the Humira patent expiry through soaring demand for newer anti-inflammatory drugs Rinvoq and Skyrizi, and also recently struck a deal with the Trump administration that gives it a reprieve from US pharmaceutical tariffs.
Full-year global net revenue for immunology was $30.4 billion, up 14 percent. Rinvoq and Skyrizi were both largely in line with estimates in the fourth quarter, with $2.4 billion and $5 billion in sales, respectively.
Those gains have shielded investors from recent challenges in AbbVie’s aesthetics business. It has struggled as competitors like Galderma Group AG — seller of Botox rival Dysport — have increasingly eaten into its market share, and customers pulled back from fillers over fears of looking unnatural.
Botox’s fourth-quarter beat comes as AbbVie works overtime to win back those aesthetics customers. A critical part of that effort relies on new marketing strategies, including a filler campaign called “Naturally You” and a Botox advertising push featuring everyday people.
Annual sales of Botox for cosmetic use fell last year for the first time since AbbVie purchased Allergan in 2019. There could be more challenges ahead: Botox for medical uses was recently selected for Medicare price negotiations under the Inflation Reduction Act, which means it will face price cuts beginning in 2028.
On a call with analysts, Michael said that while the company was “obviously disappointed” that Botox was included for Medicare negotiations, the company had planned conservatively “that it could be selected based on CMS spend,” referring to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. The CEO added that the government’s decision “does not impact our long-term growth guidance at all.”
Outside of immunology and aesthetics, AbbVie is building out its portfolio of neuropsychiatric medicines after a schizophrenia drug obtained as part of an $8.7 billion acquisition of Cerevel Therapeutics failed in mid-stage trials. Last year, the company bought an experimental depression treatment from Gilgamesh Pharmaceuticals for as much as $1.2 billion.
Gilgamesh has been developing what are known as neuroplastogens, a next-generation psychedelic that isn’t supposed to cause hallucinations. Last May, the company announced positive results from a study of bretisilocin in a major depressive disorder.
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