WASHINGTON, D.C. — The strikes on Iran by the United States and Israel increase the risks of Iranian-linked terrorism throughout North America, and while Canadian agencies have not issued a public statement, U.S. agencies have said they are on heightened alert.
“Canada supports the United States acting to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and to prevent its regime from further threatening international peace and security,” Prime Minister Mark Carney said via a statement within hours of the first strikes.
Although Carney has toned down his support for the U.S. strikes in recent days, saying he approves of them “with regret,” those nuances may be lost on a regime interested in targeting U.S. allies.
The Canadian risk for Iran-linked terror is lower than the U.S., according to analysts, but it’s not zero, warned Phil Gurski, a former counterterrorism analyst who worked with the Canadian Security Intelligence Service and is the author of several books on terrorism. He argues that Carney’s explicit public support for the U.S. action puts “Canada within the bullseye” from Tehran’s perspective.
“I personally wish that Mr. Carney had not said anything in this regard. [Canadians] have no dog in that fight,” said Gurski.
On Sunday, Iranian clerics Grand Ayatollah Nouri Hamedani and Grand Ayatollah Naser Makarem Shirazi issued fatwas for Muslims to seek revenge for the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Early Sunday, an incident fuelled fears of inspired or proxy attacks when a man wearing a shirt with an Iranian flag and the words “Property of Allah” killed three people and wounded 13 in a mass shooting at a Texas bar. No confirmed Iranian link has been established, but the attack is being investigated as possible terrorism.
So will North America face smaller-scale attacks of this sort or bigger, state-sponsored campaigns?
The lone wolf
“I think, for the moment, we’re talking about lone wolves — individual radicalization … as you saw in Texas a couple of days ago,” said Ilan Berman, senior VP of the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington, DC, who focuses on regional security in the Middle East, Central Asia, and the Russian Federation.
Gurski also believes small-scale, targeted attacks — guns, not bombings — are most likely, and suggested that criminal gangs could be hired to conduct them.
But Iran could pull the trigger on a major response, he explained, noting that while there was discussion of that possibility last summer during the 12-day war, Tehran chose not to use its networks.
That doesn’t mean it won’t activate them in the future, and the longer the conflict continues, the higher the risk. Iran and its proxies, especially Hezbollah, have a well-established presence in both the U.S. and Canada, Berman warned.
He pointed to how Iran appears to be aiming in multiple directions, attacking neighbours and allies. This, Berman said, suggests that if its regime feels like its survival is at risk, it may lash out more broadly.
But against whom?
Potential targets
Given Iran’s use of transnational repression — targeting critics in diaspora communities — Gurski believes the most probable targets could be Iranians in North America. But both he and Berman point out that Iran’s No. 1 target for retribution in this is Israel, which means Jewish communities could be at risk.
“Jewish communities are less soft targets than they were two-and-a-half years ago,” said Berman, “but I think they’re still pretty inviting targets in terms of … targets of opportunity.”
Gurski agreed, noting that Jewish schools and synagogues in Canada could be targeted.
“People say it’s one more example of Israel killing Muslims … So I think that paints
another target on Israel’s back,” Gurski added.
Berman noted that cyberattacks are possible, citing a cyber-disruption attempt on critical infrastructure by Venezuelan assets. He also pointed to previous Iranian-linked terror attempts, including one to blow up fuel tanks under JFK Airport and a plot to assassinate a Saudi ambassador in Washington.
Whatever the style of attack, what are the chances of being caught up in an act of terror?
Don’t live in fear
The risks in North America are low, but “there’s no real safe place,” said Gurski.
Many attacks are random, and while he advised that North Americans do nothing to change their daily activities, he did advise using caution in crowded spaces and at airports.
For those planning travel to the Middle East, however, he urged a rethink.
“You probably shouldn’t be traveling in this area of the world,” he said.
The U.S. State Department has urged worldwide caution, telling Americans in Middle Eastern countries to leave owing to “serious safety risks.”
Instead of visiting a spa in Dubai, Gurski suggests finding one closer to home.
“It’s a very unstable part of the world at the best of times,” he noted.
Terrorism 2.0?
Throughout much of the 2000s, counterterrorism focused on thwarting jihadists — primarily al‑Qaida after 9/11, and later ISIS, which emerged from the upheaval of the Iraq war.
Gurski, who left public service six months after the 2014 murder of Corporal Nathan Cirillo at the National War Memorial near Parliament Hill, said that back then, counterterrorism efforts were “running to stay in place on jihadis.” This made it all the more confounding to Gurski when former prime minister Justin Trudeau decided the far right was the bigger threat, spreading resources thinner.
The U.S. strategy, meanwhile, has shifted to focus on great-power competition, and less on counterterrorism, which could prove problematic, said Berman.
“We had 20 years of the global war on terror, and then we figured out that we hadn’t been paying sufficient attention to China,” he explained. “So you’ve seen this overcorrection in American policy toward great-power competition.”
But the Middle East and Africa didn’t get the memo.
“We’re seeing [there] that this problem set hasn’t gone away.”
“We are now at the apex of the emphasis of great-power competition over counterterrorism,” Berman explained, noting that he expects a reversion to the mean this year.
“They’re going to figure out that counterterrorism is really significant.”
National Post
Our website is the place for the latest breaking news, exclusive scoops, longreads and provocative commentary. Please bookmark nationalpost.com and sign up for our newsletters here.
