41-year-old Max Scherzer has been on the 15-day injured list for about a month with a combination of right forearm tendinitis and left ankle inflammation. The five starts he made for the Blue Jays before landing on the IL were a mixed bag. Scherzer allowed one earned run in six innings in his season debut on March 31st, then two earned runs in another six innings on April 18th. However, Scherzer failed to complete three innings in his other three starts, be it due to injury or ineffectiveness.
Despite his lackluster results this year, Scherzer will be a key piece of rotation depth when he returns from the IL. Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet reports that Scherzer threw around 30 pitches in a bullpen session yesterday. The Jays are considering another bullpen or facing live hitters as the next step, followed by a rehab assignment. Per the team’s injury tracker at MLB.com, Scherzer is in line to return in early- to mid-June. A return on the later side might be realistic if the veteran needs three or four rehab starts.
The depleted state of Toronto’s rotation depth is well-known at this point. Shane Bieber has been on the IL since late March with right elbow inflammation. Cody Ponce‘s return stateside lasted one start before an ACL sprain put him out until next year. More recently, Eric Lauer was traded to the Dodgers and José Berríos underwent Tommy John surgery, putting him out until midway through next year. The fact that Toronto is giving starts to Patrick Corbin, who had a 5.47 ERA from 2021-25, speaks to the Blue Jays’ need for rotation depth.
None of that takes away from the rotation’s performance overall. The group’s 3.86 ERA is ninth-best in the Majors, while their 4.9 fWAR ranks sixth-best. Dylan Cease (2.0 fWAR) and Kevin Gausman (1.8) are in the Top 10 of qualified starters. Trey Yesavage has a 1.07 ERA in five starts since returning from injury and has not yet allowed a home run. Rather, it’s the back of the rotation that needs reinforcement.
Spencer Miles was a Rule 5 pick this offseason. While he has a 2.17 ERA in 14 appearances, there’s inherent risk in anybody with such little minor league experience (14 2/3 innings from 2022-24) and two major injuries (a back injury and Tommy John surgery). Miles has also made just one start in the Majors and has maxed out at 4 1/3 innings and 63 pitches in any appearance.
As for Corbin, he has a 3.86 ERA in nine starts including today. However, there’s little reason to believe that will be sustained. Corbin has been a below-average pitcher by ERA- in every season since 2020. Excluding his little-used slow curveball, his velocity is down across the board compared to 2025. Meanwhile, opponents’ average exit velocity against Corbin has held constant, and he’s had a 4.2% uptick in hard contact rate and a 6.37 expected ERA thus far.
Scherzer comes with age and injury risks, though it’s hard to argue that someone with his track record and postseason experience won’t at least be a viable depth starter. Bieber is a bit further off from returning, but he’s perhaps even more valuable to the Jays than Scherzer. Bieber had a 3.57 ERA in 40 1/3 innings last year after returning from Tommy John surgery. Although he allowed more home runs than usual, Bieber showed his signature control by walking just 4.4% of hitters. He also induced groundballs at an above-average 48.2% rate, slightly above his career number of 46.4%.
According to a separate post from Zwelling, Bieber will begin a rehab assignment on Monday. He’ll aim for two innings in the Complex League, then progress to three innings in his next outing. Toronto’s injury report has Bieber expected back in late June, which suggests he’s in for a longer rehab assignment than Scherzer. That could mean Bieber only pitches half a season in the Majors, but that would still be Bieber’s largest sample size since 2023, when he made 21 starts for the Guardians.
If everyone were healthy, Cease, Yesavage, and Gausman would occupy the first three rotation spots. They could be followed by Bieber and Scherzer, with Miles continuing as a fireman out of the ‘pen and Corbin as a long reliever. Further injuries could change that picture, of course, but the return of the Jays’ depth starters will go a long way to ensuring they stay in the playoff hunt as the season goes on.
Photo courtesy of Kevin Sousa, Imagn Images
