The Mets and Brewers are in agreement on a deal sending Freddy Peralta and a second pitcher to Queens for prospects Jett Williams and Brandon Sproat, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. Joel Sherman of The New York Post first reported that righty Tobias Myers is also heading to New York in the deal. Michael Marino reported this morning that the Brewers had offered Peralta for Williams and Sproat, while Pat Ragazzo of Sports Illustrated first relayed tonight that talks between the two clubs had accelerated.
It’s the continuation of a monster week for the Mets. After losing out on Kyle Tucker, they’ve signed Bo Bichette and traded for Luis Robert Jr. and Peralta. Tonight’s move is arguably the biggest of the three, as Peralta gives them a legitimate #1 starter atop what had been a talented but volatile rotation. He’s coming off a career season that landed him fifth in NL Cy Young balloting.
Peralta set a career mark with 176 2/3 innings while managing a personal-best 2.70 earned run average. He punched out 28.2% of opponents behind a near-13% swinging strike rate while issuing walks at a 9.1% clip. Peralta’s underlying marks have been consistently strong over his five seasons as a full-time starter. He misses bats at a plus rate with solid command. He had been a little susceptible to the longball between 2023-24, which elevated his ERA slightly (3.77) over that span. A dip in homer rate was the biggest factor in last year’s career-best results, but estimators like FIP and SIERA feel he has been more or less the same pitcher five years running.
The 6’4″ righty challenges hitters with his fastball, a 94-95 MPH offering that plays up because of its plus spin and life at the top of the zone. He backs that up with a changeup that he’ll throw to hitters of either handedness and a pair of breaking balls (though he only really uses his slider against right-handed hitters). His willingness to attack hitters up in the zone with the fastball leads to a fly ball approach and the occasional home run trouble, but it’s a worthwhile tradeoff for the few baserunners he’ll allow. Opposing hitters have mustered a .210/.288/.367 batting line over the past three seasons.
Peralta also brings an excellent durability track record to stabilize a rotation that was light on established innings sources. He hasn’t required a single stint on the injured list in three years. He’s tied for fifth with 95 starts and ranks 15th with 516 innings over that stretch. Only Dylan Cease and Zack Wheeler have more strikeouts in that time. Peralta and Cease are the only pitchers to record 200+ strikeouts in each of the past three seasons. He battled some shoulder issues in 2021-22, including a lat strain that limited him to 18 appearances four years ago, but his recent health record has been clean.
Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns knows Peralta well from his time running baseball operations with Milwaukee. He’s probably the best starting pitcher who’ll get traded this offseason, so the Mets would surely have been involved even without that connection, but the familiarity only made him a more natural fit. Stearns also brought back closer Devin Williams on a three-year free agent contract as his biggest bullpen move of the winter.
The Stearns-led front office wisely locked Peralta up on an extension before his breakout. Peralta had been an unheralded amateur signee by the Mariners whom the Brewers acquired as one of three prospects in an Adam Lind trade when he was in rookie ball. He worked in a swing role with mixed results over his first two seasons. Milwaukee secured him on a $15.5MM guarantee with a pair of $8MM club options over the 2019-20 offseason. It almost immediately became one of the sport’s most team-friendly contracts.
Peralta is headed into the final season of that deal and playing on the second of those $8MM options. The Mets will happily pick up that salary and the associated $8.8MM luxury tax hit. RosterResource projects them for a $365MM competitive balance tax payroll. They ended last season with $347MM in CBT commitments and paid another $91.6MM in taxes. Peralta is much more affordable from a salary perspective than the Bichette and Robert acquisitions were, though he’s less than a year from a monster payday of his own. He’s on track to hit free agency before his age-31 season and could command the second-largest contract in the class after Tarik Skubal.
The Mets will presumably make an effort to keep him long term, but the main focus is on 2026. Peralta slots ahead of touted rookie Nolan McLean at the top of the staff. Sean Manaea, Clay Holmes, David Peterson and Kodai Senga are also penciled into what could be a six-man rotation — though the latter two have come up in trade rumors this offseason. Jonah Tong didn’t dominate the way McLean did after a late-season promotion, but he’s a top prospect who’ll be in the mix. They’re getting another touted arm, Christian Scott, back from elbow surgery.
More to come.
