When the initial format for the 12-team College Football Playoff was conceived, it opened a door that had never previously been available to all teams outside the Power Four conferences.
A true, honest shot at a national title.
The CFP selection committee giving out automatic bids to the five highest-ranked conference champions paired with the dissolution of the Pac-12 meant that there would always be at least one team from a Group of Six conference included in the field.
Whether they have a real chance at winning it all or not — I don’t think it will ever happen, for what it’s worth — the opportunity to try and prove it was finally real after decades of having no chance to do so.
But there were two preconceived notions about these conferences’ participation in the CFP:
That this team would always be the No. 12 seed, fed to the highest-ranked team that didn’t earn a bye in a game at their home stadium.
That there would only be one Group of Six team in the field each season.
The first belief was busted last year when 12-1 Boise State out of the Mountain West Conference took advantage of an Atlantic Coast Conference without a clear frontrunner to earn the No. 3 seed and a first-round bye.
Perhaps because of this surprising development in Year 1 of the 12-team playoff, the rules were changed. The top-four seeds now no longer have to all be from different conferences, paving the path to the Southeastern Conference and Big Ten likely earning three-plus of the four byes every season.
The second notion, though, could very well be busted this week in just the second year of the CFP.
Tuesday’s final CFP rankings before the field is announced Sunday afternoon demonstrated what seems to be a clear path to two non-Power Four teams making it into this year’s playoff.
The winner of No. 20 Tulane and No. 24 North Texas in Friday night’s American Conference championship game will be in the field.
If 7-5 Duke, which won a five-way tiebreaker thanks to its conference opponent win percentage, were to win the Atlantic Coast Conference championship game Saturday night, it opens the door for another Group of Six team to make it into the field.
The Blue Devils would certainly have something to say about that. Their coach, Manny Diaz, has already started laying out the case for why Duke deserves to be in the CFP should it pull off the upset of Virginia Saturday.
However, the fact is that James Madison (11-1) was ranked for the first time this week at No. 25. If the Dukes win the Sun Belt championship game vs. Troy Friday night, it seems likely they’ll be in the field over Duke if the Blue Devils win this weekend.
If that happens, the ACC had better hope that the CFP committee changes its tune on Miami vs. Notre Dame, which appears to be shaping up as the battle for the final spot, and begins to take that head-to-head Miami win seriously.
If Miami remains on the outside and doesn’t get an at-large bid, a Power Four conference could be left out of the 12-team playoff, something that no one would have considered a distinct possibility two years ago.
If it happens, here’s hoping the CFP format isn’t changed another time to prevent it from occurring again. Because it’s not a loophole if the ineptitude of teams from power conferences leaves the door open.
