Cubs fans got some exciting news today about the status of left-hander Justin Steele. Steele himself told reporters (including Mark Gonzales) earlier today that he has reached the point in his rehab where he no longer needs to visit with Dr. Keith Meister, who performed Steele’s UCL revision surgery last year. Gonzales adds that Steele is stretched out to between 35 and 40 pitches in his bullpen sessions, while Bruce Levine of 670 The Score reports that Steele is on track for a return to the big leagues at some point in May or June.
It’s a major hurdle that Steele has now cleared, although his timeline is not significantly altered from where it’s been throughout Spring Training to this point. Even so, it’s an encouraging update for Cubs fans given Steele’s importance to the club’s rotation. An All-Star and fifth place finisher in NL Cy Young award voting back in 2023, Steele posted a 3.07 ERA and 3.11 FIP with a 24.5% strikeout rate in 54 starts across his last two healthy seasons. That’s the production of a front-of-the-rotation starter, which the Cubs sorely lacked during the playoffs last year. Both Steele and Cade Horton were on the injured list, while Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga had both worn down over the course of the season and struggled in their NLDS starts against the Brewers.
Perhaps in an effort to avoid a similar outcome late in the season this year, the Cubs have built a deep rotation by re-signing Imanaga and trade for right-hander Edward Cabrera. Imanaga, Cabrera, Horton, Boyd, and Jameson Taillon are all surefire locks for rotation roles this year, and that could leave the Cubs looking to expand to a six-man rotation when Steele returns if the rest of that group is healthy at that point in the season. Of course, with depth starters like Colin Rea, Javier Assad, Jordan Wicks, and Ben Brown also in the mix for starts, it’s possible the Cubs could opt for a six-man rotation even in the event of an injury or two.
Turning to the lineup, last week’s news of an injury to newly-signed slugger Tyler Austin that will sideline him for “months” created plenty of questions about the first base position. While Michael Busch has handled the position capable over the past two seasons and is currently healthy, he’s also been heavily platoon protected over the past two years. Whether due to Austin’s injury or his breakout campaign last year, Patrick Mooney of The Athletic writes that Busch is set to play on an everyday basis this year, including against southpaws. Manager Craig Counsell indicated (as relayed by Mooney) that Busch has “earned” the opportunity to be a full-time player at this point, though he added that the 28-year-old will now have to prove himself capable of handling those additional responsibilities.
Busch posted an 81 wRC+ against southpaws last year, and has a lifetime 87 wRC+ against lefties overall. Those aren’t particularly exciting numbers, but there are everyday players at first base with weaker numbers against lefties. Vinnie Pasquantino of the Royals, for example, had a 63 wRC+ against same-handed pitching and sports an 87 mark for his career that’s identical to Busch’s. Busch’s predecessor at first base for the Cubs, multi-time All-Star Anthony Rizzo, posted worse numbers against lefties than Busch has through the first three seasons of his career before growing into a full-time role and hitting well against both lefties and righties alike later on. With Austin unable to play at least the next couple of months anyway, it makes plenty of sense for the Cubs to give Busch the opportunity to prove himself.
That’s particularly true given the status of top first base prospect Jonathon Long. Long is one of the better prospects in the Cubs’ system, a ninth-round pick in the 2023 draft who slashed .305/.404/.479 in 140 games at Triple-A during his age-23 campaign last year. He’d be a logical replacement for Austin on the Cubs’ bench if the team was looking for a platoon partner for Busch, but he’s dealing with some injury woes himself at the moment. As noted by MLB.com, Long has been sidelined due to a sprained left elbow since February 21, and while he’s recently resumed light baseball activity Counsell indicated that the youngster has not recovered as quickly as the Cubs were hoping. It’s unclear what sort of timeline Long is facing for a return to action, but as a youngster who has not yet made his MLB debut it goes without saying that a notable Spring Training injury substantially lowers the odds of him being able to snag a spot on the team’s bench come Opening Day.
