The Dodgers are back in the World Series to defend the title they won last year after sweeping the Brewers out of the NLCS, but while they wait to see which of the Mariners and Blue Jays will emerge from the ALCS to challenge them for the commissioner’s trophy it appears their front office has already directed one eye towards the coming offseason. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports this evening that Los Angeles is expected to target star outfielder Kyle Tucker when free agency opens up following the World Series.
The news is hardly a surprise, as the Dodgers are routinely involved with the game’s marquee free agents. They famously won the sweepstakes for both Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto during the 2023-24 offseason, and while last winter saw them miss on young superstar Juan Soto after landing as one of five finalists for his services, they still went on to spend plenty in free agency as they brought in Blake Snell, Roki Sasaki, and Tanner Scott among a number of other signings and re-signings.
Impressive as the Dodgers have been this year, one of the team’s few major flaws is their production in the outfield. Andy Pages (113 wRC+) has emerged as a legitimate regular in center field, but Teoscar Hernandez (102 wRC+) took a significant step back last year relative to his first season in Los Angeles and the Michael Conforto experiment ended disastrously as he posted a wRC+ of just 83 with negative WAR in 138 games before being left off the club’s postseason rosters. With Conforto headed back into free agency this winter, there’s an opening on the grass in Los Angeles that Tucker could fit into quite nicely.
Tucker, 28, is a four-time All-Star who is the consensus pick for this winter’s top free agent. He broke out with the Astros back in 2021, and since then he’s hit a sensational .277/.365/.514 (143 wRC+) across five seasons of work. His resume was impressive enough that the Cubs were convinced to surrender top prospect Cam Smith and All-Star third baseman Isaac Paredes (alongside young starter Hayden Wesneski) in a three-player package to acquire Tucker ahead of his final year under team control. Tucker was everything the Cubs were hoping for in the first half this year, as he slashed .291/.295/.537 with 17 homers in 83 games through the end of June.
At that point, Tucker seemed likely to find himself at the center of discussions about whether or not he’d join Ohtani, Soto, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in landing a guarantee of more than $500MM this winter. Things took a turn for the worse in the second half, however. Tucker made two trips to the injured list and hit just .225/.348/.342 in 53 games from July 1 onward, leaving him with fewer homers (22) in 136 games this year than he managed in 78 games during his injury-shortened 2024 season (23).
Heyman writes that Tucker’s tough second half has knocked down his expected price tag somewhat, but that a $300MM contract could still be realistic with even $400MM as a possible goal for the outfielder’s camp. That’s the type of price tag that’s sure to give pause to plenty of suitors, should it come to fruition. That’s unlikely to be the case for the Dodgers, who have a payroll of $395MM this year according to RosterResource and will see that figure drop to $329MM next year without making offseason additions. Even if Los Angeles isn’t willing to surpass this year’s payroll (and there’s been no indication that’s the case to this point), they’d still have plenty of room in the budget to add Tucker if they so chose.
Looking at other potential suitors, the Cubs have indicated at least some interest in bringing Tucker back into the fold next year. With that said, it should be noted that they’ve never spent more than the $184MM they gave Jason Heyward during the 2015-16 offseason on a contract in club history. That would be a significant jump out of the club’s apparent comfort zone under chairman Tom Ricketts and president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer, though it could be argued that trading for Tucker in the first place was similarly out of character.
Heyman also suggests that the Red Sox, Phillies, and Giants could be in the mix for Tucker’s services, though none of those potential landing spots are quite as obvious fits as Los Angeles is. Boston has a very crowded outfield mix as it is, with Jarren Duran, Roman Anthony, and Wilyer Abreu all left-handed outfielders under long-term team control who belong in everyday roles and profile best in a corner. The Phillies have made it clear their top priority this winter is retaining star DH Kyle Schwarber, and it remains to be seen if the Giants are interested in adding another corner bat on a massive contract after trading for Rafael Devers back in June.
