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From New Jersey to North Carolina to Tuesday’s primaries in Illinois, Israel has risen as an issue in Democratic primaries.
That’s come as polling shows a decline in support for Israel among Americans, especially those who are young and identify as Democrats. And primaries in the most blue districts draw the most progressive candidates and activists.
In Illinois, groups affiliated with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, or AIPAC, spent tens of millions of dollars in the primary campaign, and the spending became a political flashpoint, as WBEZ has reported.
What the politics are
AIPAC is a leading lobby group that endorses — and puts money behind — pro-Israel candidates. For decades, the group has spent money on politics, trying to shape U.S. policy toward Israel and the views of everyone from members of Congress to the president himself. For about as long, the group has also been mired in controversy.
It clashed with Democrat Jimmy Carter and Republican Ronald Reagan over U.S. arms sales to Saudi Arabia. It pushed back hard against Republican George H.W. Bush’s demands that Israel freeze settlement expansion for loan guarantees. Twenty years ago, a Pentagon analyst pleaded guilty to sharing secrets with the group. During the Obama presidency, AIPAC lobbied heavily against the Iran nuclear deal.
In today’s politics, many progressives heavily oppose AIPAC because of its strong support for Israel. Israel’s occupation of Gaza and its response to the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas terrorist attacks have come under sharp criticism as well as led to mass protests in many corners of the world.
At the same time, there has also been a rise in antisemitic attacks, including at a synagogue in Michigan last week, the Bondi Beach massacre in Australia in December 2025, and the killing of two Israeli Embassy staffers outside the Jewish Museum in Washington last year.
What the polling shows
In the United States, Israel has seen a sharp decline in support among many groups. The trend is clear in reliable polling from Gallup and NBC News.
For the first time since Gallup began asking the question a quarter-century ago, late last month more Americans said their sympathies lie more with Palestinians than Israelis, by a 41%-36% margin. In 2018, almost two-thirds in Gallup’s polling said they sided more with Israelis.
An NBC News poll released this week showed a 40%-39% split in favor of Israelis, but those saying their sympathy lies more with Palestinians has jumped from 13% to 39% since 2013.
Those are big swings.
The biggest changes are with Democrats and young voters
The reversal among Democrats in recent years has been like whiplash. In 2014, in the Gallup poll, Democrats’ sympathies with Israelis hit a high of 58%. Now, it’s down to just 17%, compared to 65% with Palestinians.
People 18-34 have seen a similarly rapid change. In 2018, younger Americans sided with Israelis by a 59%-21% margin. As of February, it was an almost mirror flip – 53%-23% more with Palestinians, according to Gallup.
NBC’s polling tells a similar story. Democrats went from being more supportive of Israelis 34%-18% in 2013 to now having way more sympathy with Palestinians, by a 67%-17% margin. Just since 2023, voters 18-34 went from a 37% negative view of Israel to 63%.
The shifts have been dramatic with both Democrats and young people, but they’re not alone.
Independents and 35-54-year-olds have less support for Israel, too
Independents in Gallup’s survey have gone from a high of 63% more sympathy with Israelis in 2013 to just 30% now. A plurality, 41%, side with Palestinians now. NBC found a similar trendline to Gallup’s, with independents’ sympathy with Palestinians tripling since 2013.
Among those 35-54, support for Israelis nosedived from last year to this year, from 45% to just 28%, according to Gallup. That age group’s positive ratings of Israel dropped double-digits in NBC’s poll, too.
Older voters and Republicans largely maintain support
Those 55 and older are the only age group to still have plurality support, but only by a 49%-31% margin, down from 65%-24% in 2023. Similarly, those 50-64, according to NBC, dropped 22 points in their positive rating of Israel since 2023.
Republicans’ sympathies are still heavily with Israelis – 70% in Gallup and 69% in NBC. In Gallup, there was a decline even with Republicans from a high of 87% in 2018. NBC’s numbers from 2013 are almost identical to today’s.
While views of Israel are a key factor in Democratic primaries in the short run, if these trends hold, they could reshape American policy toward Israel in the future as war with Iran continues.
