NPR’s Steve Inskeep speaks with former national security adviser John Bolton about President Trump’s objectives in Iran.
STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
President Trump and his aides have set a variety of goals for the war. Trump spoke of eliminating Iran’s nuclear program. He also talked of sinking their navy and stopping their support from militant groups. Early on, the president called on the Iranian people to prepare to rise up against their government soon. More recently, Trump has talked about wanting to pick Iran’s next leader himself, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at one point set what seemed to be more limited goals for the war, destroying Iranian missiles and missile factories in their navy. Before all of this started, we had John Bolton on the program. He is President Trump’s former national security adviser. He’s a longtime U.S. diplomat, and he’s been a supporter of efforts at regime change in Iran for a long time. He told us it might work, if Trump stayed out of it, so we’ve called him back. Ambassador, welcome back.
JOHN BOLTON: Glad to be with you.
INSKEEP: In your judgment, is the United States going about this effectively?
BOLTON: Well, I’m increasingly worried because it really is unclear what Trump’s objectives are that they’ve done sufficient planning. I think we talked before about the failure to prepare the American public for the necessity for regime change to eliminate the nuclear weapons program and the threat of international terrorism that are not going to be eliminated until this regime goes. He didn’t do that. He didn’t prepare Congress. He didn’t brief the allies. And it was questionable whether he was cooperating effectively with and assisting the opposition inside Iran. That’s what I said, I think, in our last conversation. Since then, I’m very worried that there are now signs that they haven’t thought about a lot of other things. For example, there’s reporting that the White House was surprised at how quickly oil prices went up.
INSKEEP: Yeah.
BOLTON: And all I can say to that is I’m surprised that they’re surprised. If they weren’t planning for that both economically, politically and militarily, then that’s a huge hole in the planning. I am worried that they apparently didn’t take as seriously as they should have the potential to mine the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said several days ago that the Iranian navy had been completely destroyed. And despite years of listening to that kind of thing, I should have known better. I actually sort of believed in for a while. But now we learned that it was only yesterday that we got around to destroying 16 mine-laying vessels. Of course, they’ve got the capability to mine via drones going over the strait and dropping mines in it.
INSKEEP: Yeah.
BOLTON: So I’m now worried that they’re just not – that we just haven’t done the planning in advance. And I think there’s other examples of not thinking through major issues like the strategic effect on Russia and China. I favor regime change. So when I make these criticisms, I say it because I’m deeply worried that the inadequate preparation, if that’s what it is, can prevent that goal from being achieved.
INSKEEP: Yeah. Well, the president himself has described this, and he’s minimized it. He said it’s a short-term excursion. He said earlier in the week it would end soon, a statement that moved markets in a positive direction. He’s also talked about ultimate victory. He’s used the phrase unconditional surrender at one point. Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, was asked about this. Let’s listen to what she said.
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KAROLINE LEAVITT: President Trump will determine when Iran is in a place of unconditional surrender, when they no longer pose a credible and direct threat to the United States of America and our allies.
INSKEEP: I’m trying to interpret that a little bit, Ambassador Bolton, and one way to read it is that the United States would keep bombing as long as we feel it’s doing some good from the U.S. point of view, is what I mean. But at some point, the United States just stops. Would that be an acceptable outcome, if the U.S. just stops tomorrow or next week?
BOLTON: No, because at this point, given what we see Iran doing – going after civilian targets in the Gulf Arab states, going after their oil infrastructure – if you leave this wounded beast, the regime in Tehran, in place, absolutely guaranteed they will go back to building their nuclear weapons program, supporting international terrorism and doing everything they can to undermine not just now Israel and the United States, but the Arabs across the Gulf. This is – the whole point of this exercise, if it means anything, is not to mow the lawn and reduce the threat. Israel has done that repeatedly over the years in many ways, cyberattacks, assassination inside Iran.
INSKEEP: Sure.
BOLTON: The point here is get rid of what is the real ultimate threat, which is the regime itself. If you stop before that, it’s just going to be Groundhog Day.
INSKEEP: Do you think that it would be necessary to put boots on the ground, U.S. troops on the ground, which is what it would normally take to change a regime for sure?
BOLTON: No, well, I don’t think it would normally take to change the regime. I don’t think it’s necessary here. The purpose of the military attacks, in addition to wiping out the nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs, is to destabilize the regime at the top, eliminate much of its leadership, set one regime official against another. As they see the regime coming apart and see the potential of the whole thing sinking, a number of them will decide they’d rather not go down with the ship. And that’s what we need the opposition for – not just to demonstrate in the streets, but to be working with, for example, officials, officers in the regular army – not the Revolutionary Guard but the conventional military – who would be willing to say, we’re not going to let the country be destroyed by these fanatics, the ayatollahs and the Revolutionary Guard. That is – a lot of that work should have been done in advance. I don’t know that it has been. But, for sure, it’s got to be done now.
INSKEEP: I would like to ask about the consequences that you say the administration seems not to have anticipated – the increase in oil prices, the possibility of mining the Strait of Hormuz, which would potentially create a disaster that would disrupt energy markets for a very long period of time. These things were predictable, as you point out, and these things are now happening, and worse may happen. Is it possible that this effort maybe wasn’t worth it, given that Iran was already on the defensive, already weakened before the start?
BOLTON: Well, it was weakened, but its pattern of behavior for 30 years, at least, has been to seek nuclear weapons and to support international terrorism. The regime is run by religious fanatics. The new supreme leader may be worse than his father. And the – all of these other issues are very threatening symptoms, but the real problem is the regime. And until you remove the regime, you’ll have to deal with the other symptoms.
INSKEEP: John Bolton is a former national security adviser for President Trump in his first term and a longtime U.S. diplomat. Ambassador, pleasure talking with you again. Thank you so much.
BOLTON: Thanks for having me.
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