Few players captured more attention throughout the 2025 season than Pete Crow-Armstrong. The young center fielder seemed to launch himself into superstardom in the first half this year, with 20 doubles, 21 homers, and 25 steals through the end of June. That worked out to a .263/.299/.537 slash line, good for a 128 wRC+ with elite defense in center field that made him an early rival for Shohei Ohtani in this year’s MVP race. He followed up that brilliant performance with a far less exciting second half, as he slashed just .228/.274/.412 (86 wRC+) with 17 doubles, ten home runs, and ten steals from July 1 onward.
Crow-Armstrong’s second-half slump was enough to knock him far out of the MVP conversation, but his season-long numbers remain impressive. In 157 games, the 23-year-old hit .247/.287/.481 (109 wRC+) with 35 steals in 43 attempts and an MLB-best +24 Outs Above Average for his work in center field. All of that combined to be worth 6.0 bWAR and 5.4 fWAR, good for 11th and 15th respectively among qualified hitters this year. A five- or six-win season from a 23-year-old who entered the year with less than 150 games of big league experience is hard to view as anything other than an exciting success, and that’s how Jed Hoyer characterized it in his end-of-season press conference shortly after the Cubs’ season came to a close in Game 5 of the NLDS.
“In totality, he had a great year,” Hoyer said of Crow-Armstrong, as relayed by Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. Hoyer went on to describe Crow-Armstrong as “the best defensive player in baseball” and noted that “when he’s hitting, he’s a superstar.”
All of that rings true based on his performance this season, and as the Cubs head into an offseason where Hoyer acknowledged they hope to have extension conversations with several players, Mooney writes that locking up the team’s star center fielder “figures to be the top priority.”
It won’t be the first time the Cubs and Crow-Armstrong talk about extending his stay in Chicago beyond his years of team control. The sides discussed an extension towards the beginning of the year, before his standout first half, and Crow-Armstrong passed on a deal that reportedly would’ve maxed out around $75MM with a guarantee in the $60MM-$70MM range. Crow-Armstrong, of course, rejected that offer, and while Hoyer expressed an openness to discussing an extension with the youngster’s camp during the season no further progress on the topic was reported throughout the year. Perhaps that’s not surprising, given the unusual year Crow-Armstrong just had.
If the Cubs do intend to reopen extension talks with their budding star, what could a sensible contract look like? After entering 2025 just barely short of a full year of MLB service time, Crow-Armstrong currently remains under control through the end of the 2030 season. At that point, he figures to be ticketed for free agency ahead of his age-29 campaign. A look at MLBTR’s Contract Tracker offers a wide range of comparable players in recent years. Players like Ke’Bryan Hayes, Lawrence Butler, and Ezequiel Tovar had less than two years of MLB service when they signed their deals, like Crow-Armstrong. They all landed extensions in the $60MM to $70MM range that the Cubs reportedly offered prior to this season, but those deals were blown out of the water by the $134.2MM guarantee Jackson Merrill landed in his eight-year extension with the Padres back in April.
Merrill is a year younger than Crow-Armstrong, meaning he signed his deal at the start of his age-22 season while Crow-Armstrong would be signing ahead of his age-24 season this offseason. Both players had five seasons left under club control before free agency, however, and were coming off similarly elite platform seasons; Merril’s 130 wRC+ outshone Crow-Armstrong, but his lesser defense and baserunning left him with a roughly comparable 5.3 fWAR. They also play the same position, making Merrill’s recent deal a logical point of reference for Crow-Armstrong overall.
It’s the second-highest guarantee an outfielder with less than two seasons of MLB service time has received in MLB history, behind the $210MM guarantee the Mariners offered Julio Rodriguez that can max out at $470MM over 17 years if all incentives are reached and options are exercised. Given that Rodriguez was in the midst of posting a 148 wRC+ with 5.7 fWAR and 6.2 bWAR in just 132 games as a 21-year-old rookie when he signed his extension, it’s safe to expect that a deal for Crow-Armstrong would come in closer to Merrill’s contract.
A contract similar to the one signed by Merrill could make some sense, and an eight-year, $140MM contract would beat Merrill’s contract in terms of both guarantee and average annual value. However, the Cubs may not be interested in such a large guarantee for only three additional seasons of team control, while Crow-Armstrong may not want to head into free agency at the tail end of his physical prime as a player who derives as much value from speed and defense.
Then, perhaps, the sides could get together on a longer contract that would buy out more free agent years. An 11-year deal that runs through the 2036 season would keep Crow-Armstrong in town for the rest of his prime and buy out six free agent years. An 11-year, $187MM guarantee would narrowly eclipse Merrill by both guarantee and AAV, while also narrowly beating out the eight-year, $184MM contract the Cubs gave Jason Heyward during the 2015-16 offseason for the largest deal in franchise history.
It would be a risky investment given Crow-Armstrong’s lackluster plate discipline, which left him with the third-highest swinging-strike rate in the majors this year. Given that risk and the fact that Crow-Armstrong is not set to even reach arbitration until next winter, it would be understandable if the Cubs decided to wait and see how the 2026 season played out before committing that sort of money to their center fielder.
On the other hand, the upside in Crow-Armstrong’s profile is obvious and Chicago’s reluctance to spend at the top of the market on free agents in recent years could mean that waiting another year could put Crow-Armstrong out of Chicago’s price range entirely. Rolling the dice on an extension for Crow-Armstrong could be the team’s best bet of securing a long-term, star-caliber talent. Meanwhile, it would be understandable if Crow-Armstrong was motivated to lock in long-term financial security ahead of a 2026-27 offseason where a contentious round of collective bargaining over the sport’s economic future is widely expected.
