You don’t need us to tell you that Duke, Arizona and Michigan will be No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament.
Nevermind the final few days of the regular season or upcoming conference tournaments. It will take more than another loss to knock any of those teams off the top line. They have done enough.
The remaining No. 1?
Defending NCAA champion Florida (24-6) and 2023-24 champ UConn (27-3) are the only candidates.
Polymarket alert.
It’s Florida.
The NCAA selection committee can take the easy path or the more considered one when it announces the 68-team tournament field on Selection Sunday, March 15.
The Big East champion Huskies can point to one game as justification for their second No. 1 seed in three years — a 77-73 victory over Florida in the Jimmy V Classic at Madison Square Garden on Dec. 9.
UConn held the Gators to 40 percent shooting and forced a five-second call on an inbounds play with nine seconds left in a three-point game, preventing the Gators from a potential game-tying shot.
A quality win’s quality win.
UConn is 18-2 since entering its final regular-season Big East game at Marquette on Saturday.
In the three months since, Florida has grown fangs.
Florida is 19-2 since, while playing a tougher schedule in a tougher Southeastern conference. It has won 10 straight, the longest current streak in the Power Six and the fourth-longest in Division I behind Miami, Ohio (30), Navy (13) and High Point (11).
It simply took Florida a bit longer to find its new identity.
Dynamic point guard Walter Clayton was the most influential player in the NCAA tournament during the Gators’ run to their third title a year ago.
Clayton’s skill and will helped the Gators overcome a nine-point deficit to Texas Tech in the West Regional finals, a nine-point deficit to Auburn in the national semifinals, and a 12-point deficit to Houston in the title game. Simply breathtaking.
And never mind the earlier 77-75 second-round NCAA victory over UConn, when the Gators overcame a six-point lead to end coach Danny Hurley’s bid for a three-peat.
No longer guard-first but not guard-bereft, the Gators have arguably the best frontline in the college game led by forward Thomas Baugh, a projected 2026 NBA lottery pick. They lead the NCAA with a plus-14.3 rebound margin and are ninth in scoring margin at plus-15.7.
Analytics trust the Gators.
Duke, Michigan, Arizona and Florida are ranked 1-4 in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin. UConn is 10th.
Duke, Michigan, Arizona and Florida are the only teams to rank among the top nine in both offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency. UConn is 12th in defensive efficiency and 20th in offensive efficiency.
Numbers can change, but the trend seems clear.
UConn won the game. Florida has won the war.
