Democrats see a new opportunity brewing deep in the heart of Texas, where Republicans solving one problem may have inadvertently created a new one.
Rep. Tony Gonzales’ decision to drop his reelection bid over an infidelity scandal has elevated Brandon Herrera, a controversial social media figure known by his handle “TheAKGuy,” to the Republican nomination for Texas’ 23rd Congressional District.
Democrats in the district are hoping the convergence of scandal, a lightning-rod GOP candidate, signs of a major snap-back by Latino voters in Texas, and a potentially competitive Senate race could help lift Democratic turnout enough to flip this district for the first time in a decade.
“It’s definitely more competitive than it’s ever been,” said former Rep. Pete Gallego (D-Texas), who held the seat through 2014.
The biggest reason the race might become competitive is Herrera himself. The YouTuber, gun manufacturer and Second Amendment activist has millions of online followers — and a track record of off-color, edgelord jokes that are ripe fodder for campaign ads. Herrera has come under fire for a long history of posting Nazi imagery and his involvement in a group called Sons of Confederate Veterans. Jokes like his line “I often think about putting a gun in my mouth. So, I’m basically an honorary veteran” were a flashpoint for criticism in his 2024 primary against Gonzales.
Herrera did not respond to a request for comment.
After Gonzales dropped out of the race on Thursday night, the Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC quickly pumped out a barrage of old clips of Herrera on a series of podcasts including one where is seen marching and firing a gun overlaid with the German song “Erika” associated with Nazi Germany.
National and local headwinds are also blowing against the GOP.
Republicans in Texas – usually the dominating force in statewide politics – have weathered a rocky start to the 2026 midterms. Sen. John Cornyn, a fixture of Lone Star conservative politics, is stuck in a bruising runoff election with MAGA firebrand Attorney General Ken Paxton, opening a possible path for Democrats to compete in the Senate race. And Latino voters turned out in massive numbers in Tuesday’s Democratic primaries, an early sign that Texas Hispanics, after moving hard to the right in recent years, might be swinging back in a big way this election.
There’s no guarantee that national Democrats will invest in the sprawling district, however.
The heavily Hispanic district, which runs from suburban San Antonio hundreds of miles along the border to outside El Paso, is a tough lift for Democrats — but not an impossible one. In the newly gerrymandered Texas map, it’s the least-red district held by a Republican in Texas. President Donald Trump won it by 17 points in 2024, but Hillary Clinton narrowly carried the district in 2016.
At this early stage in the changed race, neither the House Democratic campaign arm nor its biggest aligned super PAC has yet to publicly announce a commitment of resources to flipping the seat.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee does not currently list the district as an offensive target but is closely monitoring the race, according to a person familiar with national Democrats’ House strategy, granted anonymity to candidly describe strategy. The group gleefully highlighted Herrera’s elevation in a statement on Friday.
A spokesperson for the House Majority PAC, CJ Warnke, said in a statement that “nothing is off the table” when it comes to spending in the district.
Herrera was already running a tough primary campaign against Gonzales — but the congressman’s recent scandal consumed his campaign and forced him from his reelection bid. Text messages published by the San Antonio Express-News and other outlets last month revealed new evidence of a sexual relationship between the member of Congress and a staffer, who later killed herself. POLITICO has not independently reviewed the messages.
Gonzales later admitted to the affair with his former staffer, Regina Santos-Aviles, and late Thursday decided to end his reelection bid as pressure mounted from Republicans leadership for him to step aside.
Democrats argue Herrera has his own baggage that may be hard to overcome as well.
“Maybe I’m just an old-fashioned East Texas farm kid, but I tend to be anti-Nazi, and I have a feeling that people on the western side of the state feel a similar way,” said Kendall Scudder, chair of the Texas Democratic Party.
“So, you know, go ahead and nominate the adulterer, sexual predator, or nominate the actual Nazi. Regardless, we outvoted them, and we’re going to do it again in November,” he added, citing Tuesday’s strong Democratic turn out in primaries up and down the ballot.
Herrera as the GOP nominee makes for “a little bit of an easier campaign because he’s not as well known as Gonzales,” said Katy Padilla Stout, a local attorney and the Democratic nominee who is now set to face off against Herrera in November.
National Republicans were quick to throw cold water on their opponents’ hopes to expand their battleground House map into West Texas.
“Texas’ 23rd District is deep red, and Democrats know it,” said Christian Martinez, a spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said in a statement.
“While they talk a big game in Washington, they don’t even have a credible recruit and are too busy defending their own vulnerable members across Texas to compete here.”
The district, though drawn to favor the GOP candidate, is “pretty moderate and they’re practical people,” said Gallego, the former Democratic member of Congress. The north side of San Antonio at the far east end of the district map “is not monolithic Republican anymore,” he added, which gives Democrats more room to maneuver around Herrera, a conservative hardliner.
After Gonzales ended his bid, “I thought for sure it would be the Dems that would be blowing me up,” said Padilla Stout. Instead, she recounted, it was mostly Republicans who got in touch shortly after the news broke.
Their message to her: “We’re ready, give me a sign. Where do I sign up?”
