The 13th edition of the ICC Women’s World Cup 2025 has reached a gripping stage, with India’s path to the semi-finals hanging in the balance after back-to-back defeats. Co-hosted by India and Sri Lanka, the tournament features eight top-ranked teams competing in a round-robin format, where each side plays seven matches. The top four on the points table will qualify for the semi-finals based on their points tally and Net Run Rate (NRR).
Women’s ODI World Cup 2025: India’s campaign so far and current standing
Team India began their campaign on a high, defeating Sri Lanka in Guwahati by 59 runs (DLS) and dominating Pakistan in Colombo with an 88-run victory. However, the momentum dipped as South Africa edged them out by three wickets in Vizag, followed by a narrow loss to Australia where despite scoring 330 runs, India fell short by three wickets again. These consecutive defeats have now left India in a must-win situation entering the final phase of the league stage.
India are currently placed third on the points table but will face challenging fixtures against England, New Zealand, and Bangladesh. The Women in Blue need at least two wins from these three matches to stay in strong contention for a semi-final berth. With a decent NRR cushion from earlier high-margin victories, India remain in the hunt, provided they maintain consistency and manage convincing wins in the upcoming games.
Women’s ODI World Cup 2025: Qualification scenarios and what India must do next?
With the league table tightly packed, the qualification permutations for India in the ICC Women’s ODI World Cup 2025 revolve entirely around winning momentum and Net Run Rate (NRR) management. In this format, each win earns two points, and teams level on points are separated by their NRR. The top four teams after the 28 group matches will advance to the semi-finals.
Current status and upcoming fixtures
India currently stands at a crucial juncture after playing four matches.
| Metric | Detail |
| Current Standings | 3rd place on the points table |
| Matches Played | 4 |
| Wins/Losses | 2 Wins, 2 Losses |
| Points | 4 |
| Current NRR | Positive |
| Remaining Matches | 3 |
| Upcoming Matches | England (Oct 19, Indore), New Zealand (Oct 23, Navi Mumbai), Bangladesh (Oct 26, Navi Mumbai) |
Qualification scenarios
The path to the semi-finals is challenging but clear, requiring a strong finish from the hosts.
| Scenario | Wins Required | Total Points | Likelihood |
| Must-Win Route | 3 out of 3 | 10 Points | Guaranteed semi-final spot regardless of other results. |
| Likely Route | 2 out of 3 | 8 Points | Highly Likely to qualify, but NRR will be vital, especially if South Africa or New Zealand also reach 8 points. Wins against England and New Zealand (stronger teams) would be ideal. |
| Risk Route | 1 out of 3 | 6 Points | Very Difficult. Qualification would depend heavily on other teams’ losses and India’s NRR remaining superior to competitors like South Africa and New Zealand. |
What India must do next
Given that Australia and England are firm favourites for the top two spots, the race for the remaining two semi-final places is a tight battle between India, South Africa, and New Zealand. India’s focus must shift to executing in all three departments.
- Prioritize Wins: The immediate goal is to secure at least two more victories, ideally starting with the crucial match against England, followed by the high-stakes clash with New Zealand. These two matches directly impact the points tally of major qualification rivals.
- Bolster the Bowling Unit: Despite high scores, India’s bowling has struggled in the two losses, notably conceding the highest successful chase in Women’s ODI history against Australia. The bowling depth needs urgent improvement, with a focus on tighter lines, disciplined lengths, and controlling the run rate in the middle overs to defend competitive totals.
- Maintain NRR Advantage: India currently holds a significant positive NRR advantage (+0.682) over its closest rivals, South Africa (−0.888) and New Zealand (−0.245). They must aim for big-margin victories (both batting first and chasing) to increase this cushion, offering critical insurance if they finish level on points with another team. The match against Bangladesh is a prime opportunity to significantly boost the NRR.
Semi-final outlook
If India manages to qualify, the second semi-final is scheduled for Navi Mumbai on October 30. The venue for the first semi-final (October 29) and the Final (November 2) will be Guwahati and Navi Mumbai, respectively, unless Pakistan qualifies, in which case their knockout matches would be shifted to the neutral venue of Colombo. Despite back-to-back defeats, India, playing on home soil, still possesses the firepower to script a successful comeback and reach the final, potentially in front of a packed local audience.
This article was first published at WomenCricket.com, a Cricket Times company.
