How to Turn Holiday Sales Into Year-Round Growth

The holiday sales projections are coming, and unfortunately, they’re not great.

An S&P Global Ratings report expects holiday sales (November-December) will grow 4% in 2025 from 2024, but thanks to weaker consumer confidence on the “uncertain macroeconomic outlook,” those researchers say it’ll be because of increased prices to make up for tariffs, not volume.

Consulting giant Deloitte is projecting that holiday retail sales will grow between 2.9% and 3.4% in 2025. But this is well below the 4.2% from last year’s growth and below the 10-year average of 5.2%. And the National Retail Federation admits that holiday sales will increase between 3.7% and 4.2% compared to last year. Unfortunately, their forecast is below the 4.3% growth achieved from 2023 to 2024.

Many small businesses — particularly merchants — rely on a good holiday season to support them through the entire year. A recent Constant Contact study found that as much as 50% of a small company’s sales can come from between Thanksgiving and Christmas. But does it really have to be that way? I don’t think so.

Having your livelihood tied to just one season in the year is a risky model. If things don’t go right during the holidays, a small business owner could find themselves significantly challenged to show a profit for the year. Being so dependent on this time of year is a concern.

But it doesn’t have to be that way. How many stores have you browsed but didn’t purchase anything? You liked the products, you may be interested in buying, but not just now. Do you remember that store? Maybe. But what if that store kept in contact with you throughout the year? What if you received interesting deals or an enticing offer in June rather than December? Would you remember that store? Maybe go out of your way to buy there? For me, that would be likely. And I know I’m not alone.

The holidays aren’t just for holiday sales. If you’re like some of my smartest clients, you’ll use the holiday season as a way to grow your business throughout the year.

How? It’s all the data. And it’s all about using the holiday season to collect data.

Use loyalty apps

For starters, make sure your store has a good loyalty system. You can Google or ask your AI Assistant to recommend a few good mobile apps where small merchants can offer discounts and other incentives to shoppers who frequent their store. Make sure your staff is trained to encourage anyone who enters your store — regardless if they buy something — to sign up for your loyalty perks.

Do events

Hold at least one — hopefully two — events during the season. It can be anything to draw customers into your store. Demonstrations of products. Educational sessions. An expert from the industry. An open mic night for singers or comedians. Serve food and a little wine. But make sure there’s a guest list. Everyone who comes needs to be registered, either in advance or at the door.

Send newsletters

Create a newsletter and ask for signups at checkout. Tell your customers that not only will they get great tips and insights for using the products you sell, but there will be special coupons only for subscribers. Consider extending the newsletter to include other like-minded shops on your street and ask them to do the same. Collect those names.

Ask

Finally, can you better track the people who actually buy from you? Asking them for their email or mobile number to send a receipt opens up the opportunity to message them separately and request an opt-in for your newsletters and loyalty programs after they’ve left. Matching these opt-in acceptances with the sales dollars spent at your store allows you to target bigger or more frequent customers to come back for even more deals and discounts.

I do not want to sugar-coat these strategies. They all come with a cost. Loyalty apps will require you to offer money back to customers who keep coming back. Your event will require you to buy food or hire an entertainer. Your newsletter will require you to sell certain products at a discount. People want stuff for free. Or at least at a discount. They want a deal. You’re going to have to give something away in order to entice those prospective customers into your shop.

Get a CRM system

All of this information goes into your customer relationship management (CRM) system. Don’t have one? Just Google or ask your AI Assistant. There are very affordable offerings for small merchants from a number of mainstream platforms. Your point-of-sale provider probably has these capabilities. Take some time to learn about these applications. Why?

Because as you gather your data — contact information — during the holidays, you’ll build your database for after the holidays. You are doing this because after the holidays, that’s where the selling really starts.

Because these visitors have opted in, you now have permission to send email and — yes, physically mail — offers and announcements throughout the year. You know that the traffic through your store will be greater in December than at any other time of the year. People enjoy seeing what you sell. But if they don’t buy now, you can be doing more to entice them to buy something later.

The holiday season is a very important sales season. But it’s also a very important data collection season. Half of your annual sales shouldn’t come from just this time of year. With the right amount of hooks, you can get the information you need from both buyers and potential buyers to continue to drive more sales throughout the year.

The holiday sales projections are coming, and unfortunately, they’re not great.

An S&P Global Ratings report expects holiday sales (November-December) will grow 4% in 2025 from 2024, but thanks to weaker consumer confidence on the “uncertain macroeconomic outlook,” those researchers say it’ll be because of increased prices to make up for tariffs, not volume.