When sirens wail across Dubai, Meron tries not to think about leaving. She fears the missiles, but this Ethiopian domestic worker knows exactly why she’s staying: her salary pays her daughter’s school fees and puts food on the table for her entire family back in Addis Ababa. For her, leaving the Gulf because of the barrage of Iranian missiles launched in response to attacks by the United States and Israel isn’t an option.
“I’m not thinking about leaving. Whatever happens, happens,” Meron shrugs. She asks that her real name be withheld for security reasons. “This situation affects all of us, not just me. My daughter needs to go to school. I pray for peace, because peace here means survival back home.”
Meron is one of approximately five million African migrants living in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman. These people — who hail from countries such as Kenya, Uganda, Ghana and Ethiopia — have made a living in construction, domestic work, hospitality, logistics, and security services.
I pray for peace, because peace here means survival back home
Meron, domestic worker
But now, growing geopolitical tensions linked to the conflict between Iran and the U.S. are causing them deep concern about their ability to earn money and send it home. Across the African continent, more than 200 million people benefit from remittances, according to United Nations data. With this money, they pay bills, buy food, obtain medical treatment and cover other expenses. Remittances represent almost 6% of the continent’s GDP. And, in countries like Gambia and Lesotho, they exceed 20%. In some cases, money sent from abroad represents more income than official development assistance (ODA).
In 2024, African countries received more than $95.3 billion in remittances from their diasporas, making these transfers one of the continent’s largest external sources of financing. Nigeria, Egypt, and Morocco are among the main recipients, according to the African Finance Corporation’s State of Infrastructure in Africa Report 2025.
For a Kenyan taxi driver navigating the UAE’s busy highways, geopolitical tensions are secondary to his daily wage. Having lived in Dubai for a decade, he says he won’t back down, because his family depends entirely on his income. “I’m not afraid. I send money every month to my mother, my sister, and my brother,” he explains. “I support them no matter what happens here. I work every day. I won’t stop sending money.”
For many African households, the question is simple, yet crucial: Will the remittances keep coming? Well, so far — and according to at least a dozen workers interviewed by EL PAÍS — the money continues to flow, thanks to the numerous apps and digital payment services that are available in the GCC countries. However, concerns are growing about the possibility that the war could drag on for much longer.
The grueling work schedules of these migrants highlight an apparent financial paradox: remittance flows may even increase during the initial phases of a crisis. Market analyst Hany Abu Akleh, from XTB MENA, points out that the Gulf labor market has undergone a remarkable shift in recent years. There’s been a widespread increase in the participation of African workers — particularly those from Kenya and Uganda — in Gulf economies, especially the UAE and Qatar.
Abu Akleh states that many of these workers often work abroad with the primary goal of sending money back to their families. He notes that this trend is partly due to currency depreciation in several African economies during global crises, especially in the face of a strong U.S. dollar.
The analyst adds that direct transfers through electronic payment apps — widely used in the Gulf — are also becoming increasingly important for migrants’ families in their home countries as commodity prices rise. Many of these economies are heavily reliant on imports, which drives up costs for consumers. This trend has been exacerbated by the surge in oil prices, which have risen above $100 a barrel.
Economists believe that the real risk lies not in disrupted money transfer systems, but in job stability. If the war impacts regional economies, slows down construction projects, or forces companies to cut costs, migrant workers could be among the first to feel the impact.
Financial services analyst Amro Zakaria says that the latest data available — from 2024 and 2025 — show that remittances from Kenyan workers in the Gulf region account for about 10% of all funds sent home by Kenyans abroad, equivalent to about $497 million. In Uganda, remittances total about $1.6 billion, driven largely by the approximately 300,000 Ugandan workers employed in the Gulf countries. As for Ethiopia, official figures put remittances from Gulf workers at about $600 million, though the actual amount is likely higher due to limited and incomplete data.
The threat, Zakaria says, isn’t immediate, but structural. When oil prices fluctuate, shipping routes become uncertain and tourism declines. Companies may choose to reduce hiring or cut working hours. Such adjustments would directly affect migrant workers, he adds, whose income supports families thousands of miles away.
Zakaria notes that if the current crisis were to worsen, the economic repercussions could resemble the disruptions seen during the Covid-19 pandemic. However, he maintains that the Gulf states — particularly the UAE — have sufficient liquidity that could help cushion any potential disruptions.
The African Union and leaders across the continent have expressed growing concern about the escalating conflict between the U.S. and Iran, warning that the crisis could have serious economic and security repercussions. Rising fuel costs, disrupted trade routes — including the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz — and volatile financial markets are already wreaking havoc on several African economies. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa stated that the situation is already straining African supply chains and driving up energy prices. He also warned that import-dependent economies across the continent were particularly vulnerable and urged all parties to pursue dialogue, noting that diplomacy remained the only sustainable path to ending the conflict.
In Kenya, President William Ruto condemned the escalating hostilities and warned that the regionalization of the conflict posed a grave threat to global peace and security. He called for urgent international intervention to de-escalate tensions.
Sign up for our weekly newsletter to get more English-language news coverage from EL PAÍS USA Edition
