The Islamic Republic, which in the days leading up to the offensive that now threatens its survival asserted it would limit any response to attacks against Israeli and U.S. military bases in the region, has escalated its retaliation by bombing energy facilities and civilian targets. Far from being isolated incidents, Iranian forces attacked an oil refinery in Saudi Arabia and a liquefied gas plant in Qatar on Monday. In the two days prior, Tehran had already targeted numerous airports, ports, and hotels in the Gulf countries, undermining the image of these locations perceived as safe havens for recreation and investment by the world’s wealthy elite.
These attacks have intensified the rhetoric of the targeted governments and have shaken energy markets three days after the administrations of U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu launched a military offensive that has already claimed nearly 800 lives in Iran, according to the Red Crescent. The bombs are tracing increasingly diverse trajectories across the map of the Middle East, after Hezbollah, the largest of the pro-Iranian militias, entered the conflict by opening fire on Israel this Monday. The Israeli army has responded forcefully, striking all areas of Lebanon where the organization is present, causing 52 deaths according to figures from the Lebanese Ministry of Health.
Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein, a Kurd, lamented that his country — like millions of citizens in the region — is powerless in the crossfire. “Iran continues to bomb the [Iraqi] Kurdistan region, especially Erbil, while the opposing side [alluding to the U.S. and Israel] attacks [pro-Iranian Iraqi militia] targets in southern and western Iraq,” he stated.
The Iraqi complaint has been echoed by the Saudi Arabian Defense Minister, who denounced in a statement that two drones “attempted to attack” the Ras Tanura refinery, located on the country’s east coast. It is one of the world’s largest crude oil processing facilities and a cornerstone of the Saudi energy sector. The “small” fire mentioned in the statement following the interception of the projectiles contrasts sharply with images circulating on social media — verified by Reuters — showing the evacuation of workers and enormous plumes of smoke rising from various points within the plant.
The Qatari Ministry of Defense reported two attacks: one against an energy facility in Ras Lafan Industrial City, belonging to the state-owned Qatar Energy, and a second against a power plant. According to the statement from Qatari authorities — the world’s third-largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) — the attacks resulted in no fatalities, while the economic damage and losses are still being assessed. They have, however, caused a 45% increase in the price of LNG on the European market, to €46 ($53) per megawatt-hour, and have also subjected the market to significant volatility.
Attacks in the Strait of Hormuz
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard announced Monday a new attack against oil tankers in the waters of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil passes daily. Reports from Iranian news agencies, cited by Reuters, indicate that a vessel caught fire after being struck by two drones. These reports, which do not specify who carried out the attack, suggest that the target was a Honduran-flagged vessel accused of having ties to the United States.
Tehran had already announced similar attacks in the preceding days. The strait is a strategic route for the global supply of crude oil, connecting the largest oil producers — Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, and the UAE — with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. This has been disrupted since Saturday with the outbreak of fighting in the region and threats from Tehran, whose geographic control over this channel on the southern coast of Iran grants it significant influence over global affairs. The insecurity has led to fewer and fewer ships venturing through this bottleneck. Iranian authorities have declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, a waterway that has faced numerous threats throughout modern history without ever being completely shut down.
Iran has not only set its sights on energy resources. Sources within the Qatari Foreign Ministry told CNN on Monday that they had intercepted attacks against an international airport. The ministry’s spokesman, Majed al-Ansari, known for his conciliatory role in the mediations Doha is promoting to resolve conflicts in the region, broke with his usual tone: he asserted that contact with Tehran is currently nonexistent and that these attacks cannot go unanswered.
Former Qatari prime minister Hamad bin Jassim bin Jaber Al Thani has taken to social media to warn against a clash between Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries after all member states — Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain — were bombed by another member, Iran. Both sides would “exhaust their resources,” giving “other forces an opportunity to control us under the pretext of helping us escape the crisis,” Al Thani warned.
The gradual shift of Iranian attacks toward civilian targets began with the bombing of luxury hotels, skyscrapers, and ports in several Gulf monarchies, which — along with attacks on other countries other than Israel, Iran, and Lebanon — have resulted in a dozen deaths. Iran’s state news agencies have frequently covered the offensive by the national armed forces as if it were limited to military targets. On Saturday, speaking to the Qatari network Al Jazeera, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi asserted that “what happened in Oman,” referring to an Iranian attack on the port of Duqm, “was not our choice.”
Despite these apologetic words, the diplomat concluded his statement with a troubling message for neighboring states, asserting that “the [Iranian army’s] military units are now acting independently and are, in a sense, isolated.” These units, he specified, “are acting on instructions they have received in advance.”
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