Following the Tigers’ 15th-inning loss to the Mariners in Game 5 of the ALDS, right-hander Jack Flaherty (who pitched two scoreless innings late in the game) spoke to members of the media about how much he enjoyed returning to Detroit this season. “I came back here for a reason, to be with these guys, play with them, and be part of this team. I didn’t want to leave it last year,” he explained (per MLB Network’s Jon Morosi).
Flaherty, 30 next week, signed a two-year, $35MM guarantee with the Tigers in the offseason. Earlier this season, he increased that guarantee by reaching the 15-start threshold and escalating his 2026 player option from $10MM to $20MM. In a few weeks, he’ll have a decision to make: Will he opt in for 2026 or return to free agency for a third year in a row?
According to Morosi, Flaherty has not yet decided what he’s going to do. In an MLBTR poll at the end of September, more than 60% of readers said he should stay with Detroit, but Tigers beat writer Evan Woodberry of MLive.com claims “it would be a surprise” to see Flaherty pick up his option.
Flaherty signed a one-year, $14MM deal with the Tigers in his first offseason as a free agent. He was two years younger than he is now, but he was coming off a mediocre season (144 1/3 IP, 4.99 ERA, 4.53 SIERA, 1.8 fWAR) and had dealt with significant injuries in both 2021 and ’22. Following a much stronger 2024 campaign (162 IP, 3.17 ERA, 3.10 SIERA, 3.3 fWAR), he re-entered free agency but failed to land the long-term deal he was surely looking for, ultimately settling for his aforementioned two-year deal in February. That contract initially came with a $17.5MM average annual value, which he increased to $22.5MM. Now another year older and coming off a less impressive season (161 IP, 4.64 ERA, 3.67 SIERA, 2.5 fWAR), it’s worth wondering if he’ll want to risk another disappointing foray into free agency.
Because he was traded to the Dodgers ahead of the deadline in 2024, Flaherty was not eligible to receive a qualifying offer last offseason. It’s certainly possible he opts for free agency, only to receive a qualifying offer (projected to be worth around $22MM) and take it, earning himself an extra $2MM. The righty is precisely the type of player whose earning power could be hamstrung by a qualifying offer, so he might prefer to accept it, play another season with Detroit, and try to enter free agency in a stronger position the following winter. It seems like a safe bet that Flaherty could out-earn $22MM on a multi-year deal this offseason, but the AAV would likely be lower. If he believes he can produce a stronger campaign in 2026, he could maximize his total earnings by taking the $22MM and looking for a more lucrative long-term contract a year from now.
If Flaherty returns next season, the Tigers might run with a very similar rotation to the group they used in 2025, featuring Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize, and a hopefully healthy Reese Olson. As things stand, Troy Melton, Keider Montero and Sawyer Gipson-Long could compete for the final spot, although president of baseball operations Scott Harris would be wise to look for some outside help.
