When the Cubs made it back to the postseason in 2025, they did so short-handed. The club had lost staff ace Justin Steele just four starts into his 2025 season to UCL revision surgery. That procedure, which Steele underwent in mid-April of last year, came with an initial recovery timeline of roughly one year. There’s been minimal updates on Steele’s status since then, but the left-hander (as noted by MLB.com) took a big step forward in his rehab last week when he threw off a mound for the first time since going under the knife.
In an interview with Elise Menaker of Marquee Sports Network, Steele noted that while he doesn’t have a specific timeline for his return to the majors, he expects to face hitters at some point during Spring Training and added that he’s not only suffered no setbacks but is “ahead of schedule, if anything.” That’s certainly a positive sign for Cubs fans who are hoping to see Steele back on the mound early in the 2026 campaign. The team returns its entire rotation from 2025 but could benefit this year from a full season from Rookie of the Year runner-up Cade Horton and the addition of right-hander Edward Cabrera, who the Cubs swung a deal to land from the Marlins earlier this month.
With Cabrera, Horton, Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd, Jameson Taillon, and Colin Rea all set to be on the big league roster to start the year (to say nothing of depth options like Javier Assad, Jordan Wicks, and Ben Brown behind that group), the team’s crowded rotation mix could lead the Cubs to be a bit more careful with Steele’s rehab than they otherwise might be. After all, there are nine other starters on the team’s 40-man roster, before getting into the possibility that top prospect Jaxon Wiggins debuts at some point this year and the ability for a non-roster arm like Connor Noland to chip in some innings as well.
Steele himself acknowledged in his interview with Menaker that Dr. Keith Meister (who performed Steele’s surgery back in April) will likely suggest some sort of full-season innings limit for the lefty as he works his way back onto the mound. After adding Cabrera and Alex Bregman to a team that came within one game of the NLCS last year, the Cubs certainly have hopes of playing deep into October this year. They’ll also surely want a healthy Steele to be part of those playoff plans, so if Chicago’s rotation mix is mostly healthy throughout the first half of the season it could make sense for the team to slow-play Steele’s rehab and focus on having innings left work with come the postseason.
Of course, health in the rotation is no guarantee. Imanaga, Horton, Taillon, and Cabrera all spent time on the injured list last year, while 2025 was Boyd’s first time making 30 starts in a year since 2018. Any of those pitchers once again needing significant time on the shelf this year can’t be ruled out, and slow-playing Steele’s rehab could leave them in position to be caught short-handed if the team’s rotation struggles to stay healthy early in the year. While players like Assad, Brown, and Wicks are quality depth, it’s difficult to argue that a version of Steele that’s even just approaching full strength wouldn’t be a safer bet to produce than that trio of youngsters.
Steele’s been one of the most effective starters in baseball since he broke out midway through the 2022 season, and since that time only nine pitchers (min. 300 innings pitched) have a lower ERA. That group of nine names is a who’s who of the leagues top aces, ranging from Paul Skenes, Tarik Skubal and Shohei Ohtani to Chris Sale, Max Fried, and Zack Wheeler. It would be difficult to leave that sort of upside on the sidelines for longer than absolutely necessary, especially when Chicago will be looking to chase down a Brewers team that both won the NL Central crown last year and also knocked them out of the playoffs back in October. However the Cubs ultimately decide to handle Steele’s rehab, they surely won’t make any firm decisions until Spring Training gets underway and they have a better understanding of the other pitchers on the roster in terms of their own health.
